AP/Ipsos Poll: Opinion Around the World, Eight-Country Poll On Bush's Re-Election

Washington, D.C. -- After a close and hard-fought U.S. presidential campaign that engaged public opinion around the world, publics in several European countries and Australia - and more than four in ten in the U.S. - say the reelection of George W. Bush left them "worried" or "disappointed." While publics abroad express unfavorable opinions of Bush and criticize his role in world affairs. Americans in general are not judged as harshly. However, a gap remains between the favorable views of Americans held by Canadians, Australians, the British and Italians, and the more ambivalent or unfavorable opinions among the Germans, French, and Spanish. U.S. Election Leaves Many Worried Worry was the most common reaction among sizeable majorities in Germany (72%) and France (68%). Six in ten in Canada (62%), Spain (62%) and the UK (61%) also say the election left them worried. Italians are divided (48% worried, 47% not). Among Americans (45%-55%) and Australians (45%-54%), those who are worried are narrowly outnumbered by those who are not. Among global publics, people who are most worried by Bush's reelection tend to include:

• People age 18-24 (77% France; 91% Germany; 67% Italy; 75% Spain)
• Women (52% U.S.; 67% Canada; 72% France; 53% Italy; 49% Australia)
• White collar clerical workers (71% Canada; 75% France; 76% Germany; 71% Spain)
• People with higher education (65% Canada; 75% France; 54% Italy; 72% U.K.; 56% Australia)
• Internet users (63% Canada; 74% France; 75% Germany; 55% Italy; 68% Spain)

Not surprisingly, left-leaning voters are more worried than those on the right by the reelection of George W. Bush, regardless of whether they are the governing party, as in Germany and Spain, or the opposition party as in France, Italy, and Australia. The gap is most pronounced in the U.S., as eight in ten Democrats (80%) say they worried, while nearly all Republicans say they are not (91%). Opinions look a little different in the U.K. People with higher education are more worried, with few differences emerging across gender, age or even politics -- there is little difference between the views of Labour and opposition supporters. Some Disappointment Toward Bush's Re-Election, Even In U.S. This latest international poll finds that Bush's reelection caused the most disappointment among the French (65%) and Germans (66%), with the Canadians (62%), Spanish (57%) and British (58%) also expressing disappointment. Over half of Americans (56%), Australians (52%) and Italians (54%) are not disappointed. Election Leaves Americans Hopeful, Others Less So In the same vein, Italians (41%) and Australians (36%) stand apart from other publics in their relatively higher level of hopefulness for the next Bush term. For their part, a majority (55%) of Americans say they feel hopeful about Bush's reelection. Among Americans, hope is stronger among people over age 35 (60%) than those under age 35 (46%). Despite Criticisms, Few Are "Angry" About Election Outcome Fewer than three in ten across these countries say Bush's reelection made them "angry," the exception being Spain. Four in ten (43%) Spaniards feel angry about Bush's win, and especially supporters of the governing Socialist Party (PSOE; 61%) and people under 35 years of age (54%). Bush's Role In World Affairs Described As Negative Three-quarters or more in France (75%) and Germany (80%), and two-thirds in Canada (68%), Spain (68%) and the UK (64%) say President Bush plays a somewhat or very negative role in world affairs. Half in Italy (53%) also criticize Bush, although a sizeable share is unsure. Opinions are closely divided in Australia and the U.S., where views divide sharply along party lines. Overall, attitudes towards Bush's international impact are stable or very slightly improved from February of this year. This suggests that the deterioration of global attitudes toward President Bush may have bottomed out, providing a stable if not hospitable environment for Bush's state visits, including his recent trip to Canada and upcoming trip to Europe. Here's what views were on the same question nine months earlier. Americans Favorable Toward Bush; Other Publics Unfavorable In general, opinions on Bush's international role are paralleled by overall evaluations of the U.S. president. A majority (57%) of Americans express a favorable opinion of President Bush (42% unfavorable). By about a five-to-four margin, Australians and Italians have unfavorable views of the President. Views are much more strongly expressed in Canada and the UK, where 64% are unfavorable, and France, Germany and Spain, where seven in ten or more voice negative opinions of Bush. Americans Seen In Relatively More Favorable Light Across these countries, attitudes toward Americans are generally more favorable than opinions toward George W. Bush,. In Australia, Italy, Canada and the U.K., majorities have critical views of Bush but favorable views of Americans. In France, Spain and Germany, the very negative opinions toward President Bush appear to have had more of a drag on opinions of Americans. In these four countries, Americans come off better than Bush, but neither the citizens of the U.S. nor their leader is viewed favorably by a majority. Young Adults Among Harshest Critics Of The U.S. In countries where opinion of Bush is more unfavorable, young adults are among the strongest critics. People between the ages of 18 and 34 in Canada (71%), Spain (80%) and Germany (93%) are more unfavorable toward Bush than people aged 35 and over. The same pattern emerges in the U.S., although less intensely: Americans under 35 are more unfavorable toward Bush than those 35 and over (49% vs. 38%). In France, unfavorable views of Bush are especially pronounced among those under age 25 (91% unfavorable). There's no great difference across the generations in Australia or Italy in respect to their opinions of Bush. The British are an exception, with people aged 50-64 being most critical toward Bush (73% unfavorable). Opinions toward Americans are also relatively more unfavorable among young adults in Spain, Germany and France. Half (50%) of Italians between the ages of 18 and 24 have an unfavorable view of Americans, compared to 34% among the Italian public at large. In Britain, opinions of Americans are more negative among people between the ages of 25 and 34 (44% unfavorable) than those under 25 (27%). Perspectives From Ipsos Global Public Affairs Experts Following are quotes from Ipsos Public Affairs experts. Overall, these international experts agree that while public criticism of the U.S. remains sharp, the start of Bush's second term may in fact present an opportunity to rebuild relations on a new, pragmatic footing. Darrell Bricker, President and COO of Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs in Canada comments: Canadians have consistently had an unfavourable impression of George W. Bush, especially when it comes to his role in world affairs. This latest survey, in the wake of the U.S. election, shows that this negativity has now crystallized. But, negative views of President Bush appear to be driven more by cool disappointment or resignation than white-hot anger. The negative view that Canadians have of George W. Bush does not, however, extend to Americans in general - 80% of Canadians say they like Americans. This is not surprising. No matter how you measure it, most Canadians regard Americans as closest cousins. Ultimately, what may appear to less careful analysts as garden variety Anti-Americanism, is more subtle than that. It's actually anti-Bush, not Anti-American. Gilles Corman, Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos/INRA in Belgium, takes a European perspective: This wave shows that contrary to what usually happens just after a victory, George W. Bush's reelection hasn't improved his image in the European public opinion. The same pattern of views on him and his action can be his observed, with a group of countries strongly opposed to him (France, Germany and most of all, Spain where March-11 has generated a very strong resentment against U.S. policies and leaders), one country that is slightly more moderate but still negative about Bush (the UK), and Italy which tends to be more favourable to the U.S. President and the Americans. In France, Germany and Spain, small majorities say they have a negative opinion of Americans. However, this survey shows an increasing lack of comprehension between these countries (plus the UK) and the U.S. rather than a surge of anti-Americanism. The predominant feelings about G.W. Bush reelection among the general public in the four mentioned European countries are disappointment and surprise, much more than anger (except in Spain, 43%). Above all, people in Europe appear to be worried about the consequences of this election (a feeling shared by large majorities in all countries, and even by a short majority in Italy), which can be explained by their perception of Bush's foreign policy. They still have a strikingly negative view on it, showing that they don't believe that the situation is getting better in Iraq - and the slight improvement on this question observed since February 2004 is probably just an effect of the timing of the first wave, carried out during the war itself. Antonio Vera, Director of Ipsos Opiniуn, explains public opinion in Spain: The support of former President Aznar of the Popular Party for Bush's international policy, especially in relation to the intervention in Iraq, always has been rejected by the majority of the Spanish public. This circumstance took its weight in the PSOE180s victory (PP180s defeat) in the General Elections in March 2004. Also, this majority feeling of the Spanish citizens is spread to Bush's opinion and his international policy. In addition to that, before the U.S. Elections, some political figures from the current Spanish government (PSOE), have shown their hopes for the election of Kerry. Sam McGuire, Director of Ipsos Public Affairs in the UK, notes: Because of the UK's ties with American foreign policy, the recent U.S. elections were followed with great interest in the UK. Because of Bush's (administration's) policy stance, it comes as no surprise that 61% of Brits are worried that Bush has won a second term, bearing in mind that 64% of us have a negative view of his role in world affairs. With two thirds of the UK population saying they are not hopeful for Bush's second term, the worry is that these national fears will be borne out. The optimist in me wants to think that this second term will have a more positive vision for world affairs, however the realist in me is telling me not to hold my breath... Randall Pearce, General Manager of Ipsos Mackay Public Affairs in Australia, explains the results in his country: Party support in the most recent federal election was the biggest indicator of a positive opinion of Bush, who was returned to office along with Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, in recent months. 70% of respondents who reported supporting the Coalition in the House of Representatives in the last federal election said they held a favourable view of the American leader. By contrast, less than one fifth (19%) of ALP voters and only 11% of Greens held favourable views. Australia and Italy should top the U.S. President's list of foreign travel destinations, according to this poll, with both countries reporting favourable ratings of around 40 percent. Canada and the United Kingdom would come next, since roughly one-third of the populations in both of those countries hold positive views. Of course, his best bet would be to stay home where 57% of Americans report a favourable opinion of their President. Americans are much more favourably perceived in Australia and around the world than their newly-elected President. In Australia, 69% of respondents reported a very favourable (16%) or somewhat favourable (53%) impression of Americans. Americans are most favourably perceived by their closest neighbours, the Canadians, of whom 80% reported positive opinions of US citizens. If Americans are looking for a northern summer vacation spot, Canada has got to be it but, if they are looking to escape the winter cold, Australia is a natural choice. Australians rated Americans roughly ten percent more positively than the British (60%) and the Italians (56%) and roughly 30 points ahead of the French (41%), the Germans (41%) and the Spanish (35%). Perceptions of Bush's role in world affairs parallel views of him as President of the world's sole superpower. In Australia, a majority (55%) has negative views of the President's role. However, it should be noted that one quarter of Australians (25%) harbour very negative views of the role played by Bush in managing global issues. This sentiment is shared most broadly among young adults, aged 25-34, of whom more than six in ten (62%) hold unfavourable opinions. Older Australians and people with low incomes have the most positive views of Bush on the world stage. Australians rate Bush's performance on international issues the highest (43%) among all the countries included in the survey, after the U.S. (54%). There is a strong correlation between our favourable opinions of Bush the man and Bush the leader of the free world. Again, John Howard's public support of Bush is supported by his core constituency with 64% of Coalition voters reporting favourable impressions of Bush's job performance in the international arena. Disappointment (47%) and worry (45%) were the two most frequently cited responses when Australians were asked to choose from a list of six possible reactions to the U.S. election result. The list included: angry, worried, excited, hopeful, disappointed and surprised. The angriest Australians are also the youngest with one quarter (26%) of citizens aged 18-24 choosing "angry" to describe their reaction to the result. One-third of both ALP and Greens voters supported that view. Only 8% of respondents said they were "excited" by the result of the American election. Roughly one-third of us are optimistic about the future -- 36% of respondents chose "hopeful" from the list of possible choices. In this respect, as in others in this poll, Australians seem to have a similar view to Italians. Methodology For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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