AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Kerry Mobilizes New Voters

Washington, D.C. -- In the final days of the election campaign, public opinion remains divided and the race too close to call. About one in ten voters have already cast their ballots, but opinion has not made a decisive break toward either candidate. Bush's job approval and views on the country's direction remain lackluster, but Kerry has as of yet been unable to mobilize this discontent into enough momentum to drive his support decisively into the lead.

Among likely voters, Bush (46%) and Kerry (49%) are in a near dead heat, continuing the slight rise in support gained by Kerry after the first debate.

Some of key findings of this survey are that:

• Men are for Bush (52% vs. 42% Kerry) and women are for Kerry (55% vs. 40% Bush). The gender gap has reappeared after about several months where women were divided on the candidates.
• Bush support is strong in the Midwest and South (52% each), Kerry leads decisively in the Northeast (61%) and narrowly in the West (52%; 57% Pacific).
• Urban areas (59%) and suburban women (56%) lean toward Kerry, while rural residents (58%) and suburban men (57%) support Bush.

Bush does particularly well among:

• Married men (58%)
• Protestants (55%), and white evangelicals in particular (72%)

Kerry support is strong among:

• Ethnic minorities (71%)
• Lower income households (65% of those under $25,000 per annum)
• City dwellers (59%) and suburban women (56%)
• College-educated women and single women (62% each)

Kerry has lost some support from Independents: 41% of Independent likely voters support Kerry, down from 56% in the October 4-6 poll. More now are undecided - 22% vs. 11% earlier this month - with this perhaps serving as a way station toward supporting Bush (27%; 28% on October 4-6).

Each candidate's support remains strong, with no more than one in five of either candidate's supporters likely to switch their vote.

One in Ten Have Already Voted; Up To a Quarter May Do So by November 2 One in ten (9%) registered voters say they have already cast their vote, and another 15% say they plan to take advantage of early voting. So far, these votes have gone both to Bush (3% of all registered voters) and Kerry (5%); Nader gets the early vote of 1% of registered voters nationwide.

New Voters Lean Toward Kerry About one in ten likely voters did not vote in 2000, mostly because they either were too young to vote or were registered in 2000 but chose not to cast their vote. This is an interesting group because they lean so strongly toward Kerry (60%, vs 49% among all likely voters). Moreover, twice as many were contacted by the Kerry campaign than by the Bush team, indicating the strength of the Democratic grassroots organization.

New voters tend to be young (64% are under 35), unmarried (54%), with some college experience (36%) and holding down a full-time job (63%), often in the service sector or skilled trades. They say the country is heading in the wrong direction (68%) and disapprove of Bush's performance as President (63%) and his handling of Iraq (65%), in particular.

Bored Voters for Bush With the race being as close as it is, much attention is being paid to the definition of likely voters. The AP/Ipsos model includes three elements: having voted in 2000, stated intention of voting this year, and interest in election campaign news.

Likely voters, as shown above, narrowly favor Kerry-Edwards (49%) over Bush-Cheney (46%). If we look at all registered voters, the race is a draw (47% Kerry, 46% Bush).

In the gap between registered voters and likely voters, there is a group of people who voted in 2000 and are very likely to vote this year, but do not have a great deal of interest in following news about the campaign. Because of their lack of interest in campaign news, they are excluded from the likely voter group. However, they are actually more likely to have voted in 2000 than likely voters overall.

These bored voters support Bush (50%) over Kerry (40%). They approve of the job Bush is doing as President (57%), but are generally divided on his performance on specific issues. Demographically they tend to resemble likely voters, although they are somewhat more often evangelical or born-again Christians.

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The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between October 18-20, 2004, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,540 adults nationwide, including 1,330 registered voters, 976 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 for all adults, +/- 2.7 for registered voters, and +/- 3.1% for likely voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please click on the Topline Results PDF at the top of this page. To view the very latest "President Bush's Approval Ratings", "Approval Rating On Specific Issues" and "Head-to-Head: Bush-Cheney vs. Kerry-Edwards vs. Nader-Camejo", please download the Charts PDF at the top of this page. Terms Of Use For Referencing This Poll In reporting the results from this poll, please use the following protocol: The first time the poll is referenced, it should be, "The Associated Press Poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs." All subsequent references should be "The AP-Ipsos Poll." Thank-you.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa

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