AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Kerry Rebounds

Washington, DC -- The first presidential debate on September 30 appears to have evaporated President Bush's post-convention advantage. The latest Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs poll indicates that the shape of the contest has changed, as Democratic challengers Kerry-Edwards (50%) edge narrowly ahead of Bush-Cheney (46%) among likely voters.

Some of the more dramatic shifts in likely voters' preferences since the September 20-22 poll have occurred among:

• Seniors - support for Kerry has risen from 36% to 55% now;
• Women age 45 or older; a majority now favor Kerry (53%, Bush 42%), where last month the race was a tie (Bush 49%, Kerry 46%);
• Rural voters - Bush's majority has softened substantially (54%, from 68%);
• Independents - Kerry support is at 56%, from 41%;
• People with the lowest household income - 63% now back Kerry, up from 47% in September;
• Generation X voters - a majority now prefer Kerry (55%, from 44%) over Bush (42%; 56% in late September);
• Battleground states - the advantage is now leaning toward Kerry (41% Bush, 54% Kerry), whereas last month Bush had the momentum (51%; 45% Kerry).

With only three weeks remaining until Election Day, the race is clearly heating up, as demonstrated by interest in the first presidential debate. A strong majority of registered voters (60%) and nearly three-quarters (72%) of likely voters reported they watched the debate. An additional 10% said they watched or listened to at least part of the debate.

John Kerry appeared to reap the most benefit from the debate, with four-in-ten (39%) likely voters reporting they now have a more favorable opinion of Kerry. Only 14% report their impression of Kerry is less favorable since the debate. While two-thirds (64%) say their impression of Bush has not changed since the debate, one-quarter (27%) state they have a less favorable impression. Fewer than one-in-ten (8%) likely voters reported a more favorable impression of Bush after the debate.

Excitement about the race is also up. The percentage of likely voters is up from 54% in September. In addition, 5% of voters have already cast their votes, taking advantage of early voting procedures in some states (2% for Kerry, 2% for Bush, a total of 5% voting with the difference due to rounding.)

Support for both candidates among likely voters remains incredibly strong. Only 4% of declared Bush supporters and 7% of Kerry supporters say they could change their mind between now and election day.

Both in the aggregate and on key election issues, Bush's approval ratings have fallen among likely voters. Whereas over the month of September, there was net approval of Bush's handling of his job as president, now a majority (53%) disapprove. While overall approval has slipped since September among all registered voters, this shift is seen most acutely among seniors (41% approve, down from 59%), women (42% approve, down from 50%), whites (49% approve, down from 60%), those with college degrees (44% approve, down from 54%), as well as in the key battleground states (42% approve, down from 53%).

The first presidential debate, on foreign policy, appears to have raised public concerns about the situation in Iraq and accentuated its role in the campaign. Majority support for Bush's handling of foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism has slipped toward disapproval, and a solid majority now disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq. One of the most striking shifts in support for Bush's handling of foreign policy issues is among undecided voters, with only 38% approval - compared with 63% approval in late September. Bush, however, is making some gains among young people; a majority of those in Generation Next (57%) now approve of Bush's handling of foreign policy issues, compared with only 40% approving in September. Regarding the situation in Iraq, men are demonstrating a change in approval - only 47% now approve compared with a solid majority (57% approve) in September.

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Likewise, 52% of likely voters say going to war in Iraq was a mistake. Compared to previous data from registered voters and the overall public, the picture is a slow erosion of support for the war over time.

Over the course of the campaign, the issue of Iraq has been an increasingly contentious issue, and today, voters are evenly divided over whether Bush (49%) or Kerry (46%) would be a better job of handling Iraq. Nearly all Republican voters trust Bush (91%; 7% Kerry) and Democratic voters trust Kerry (84%; 10% Bush). Independent voters are evenly divided (47% each), as are persuadable voters (44%-46%).

On the economy and domestic issues, approval of Bush also showed signs that the post-convention bump is now gone. Bush's slim margin of approval on his handling of the economy has disappeared, with a majority now disapproving (52% disapprove, 47% approve). Importantly, approval on the economy slipped in key areas - a majority of Midwesterners now disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy (44% approve, 55% disapprove; compared with 54% approve and 44% disapprove in September), as do residents of battleground states (43% approve, 56% disapprove; compared with 50% approve and 49% disapprove in September).

On domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy, approval of Bush has continued to drift downward (with exception of late September, when Bush rebounded slightly). A solid majority (56%) now disapprove of Bush's handling of domestic issues. This shift is seen especially among seniors (41% approve, down from 58%), college graduates (40% approve, down from 49%), women age 45 or older (39% approve, down from 47%), and among residents of battleground states (39% approve, down from 46%).

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A majority of likely voters (54%) think that Kerry would do a better job of creating jobs (versus 40% for Bush), but protecting the country is still the more important issue in deciding how to vote for president (65% protecting the country versus 26% creating jobs).

A majority (51%) still think that George W. Bush would do a better job protecting the country, but Kerry has made steady progress on this front since the Republican convention.

More than four-in-ten (45%) likely voters now think that John Kerry would do a better job protecting the country.

Despite strong views on the importance of protecting the country, adults are less certain about the direction of the country. A solid majority (56%) now think things in this country are headed off on the wrong track, compared to 40% who believe things are headed in the right direction.

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Perceptions of the personal qualities of the presidential candidates has also changed a little in Kerry's favor.

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between October 4-6, 2004, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,541 adults nationwide, including 1,273 registered voters, 944 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 for all adults, +/- 2.7 for registered voters, and +/- 3.2% for likely voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please click on the Topline Results PDF at the top of this page.

To view the very latest "President Bush's Approval Ratings", "Approval Rating On Specific Issues" and "Head-to-Head: Bush-Cheney vs. Kerry-Edwards vs. Nader-Camejo", please download the Charts pdf at the top of this page. To view the chart Presidential Debate Rating download the PDF at the top of this page. Terms Of Use For Referencing This Poll In reporting the results from this poll, please use the following protocol: The first time the poll is referenced, it should be, "The Associated Press Poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs." All subsequent references should be "The AP-Ipsos Poll." Thank-you.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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