AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Six In Ten Expect No Clear Winner On November 3rd

Washington, D.C. -- Six in ten Americans say it's likely there will not be a clear winner on November 3rd, the day after the vote. Democrats (69%) are more likely than Republicans (56%) or Independents (49%) to expect some uncertainty.

Half Expect Court Challenge to Election Outcome Half of all adults (48%) and 54% of likely voters expect the results of the presidential election to be challenged in court. Anticipation of a court challenge is higher among men (52%) than women (44%), and especially men who are age 45 and over (56%), as well as among men who are suburban residents (59%), married (55%) and Republicans (59%). Young adults (63%), people with up to a high school diploma (59%), and residents of rural areas (57%) and states Gore won easily in 2000 (55%) tend to think a court battle is unlikely.

Most Are Confident Their State Will Count Votes Accurately Despite the expectation that the election may not immediately result in a clear winner, nine in ten Americans are confident that the votes in their own state will be counted accurately.

Confidence is softer among women, particularly those under age 45 (47% say they are only "somewhat confident"), unmarried women(42%), and suburban women (40%). Democrats (43%), members of minority groups (42%), and residents of states that Gore won four years ago (39%) also tend to be only somewhat confident.

Florida's 2000 Recount Continues To Divide Americans Much of the hesitation toward this year's election result likely arises from memories of the still-debated Florida count in 2000. A majority (55%) in the U.S. says that the presidential vote count in Florida four years ago was not fair and accurate. This belief is particularly strong among Democrats (85% not fair and accurate) and people who voted for Gore in 2000 (89%). People who anticipate problems in their own state this year also believe Florida's 2000 vote was tainted (75%).

Terrorism Seen As Less Of A Threat To Elections Three in ten say it is at least somewhat likely that terrorists will attempt to disrupt next week's elections, although few (6%) say it is "very likely." More Republicans (38%) than Democrats (24%) say an attack is likely; Republican women are most concerned (45% likely). Most residents of the Northeast (74%) and Western U.S. (70%) say an attack is unlikely; whereas residents of the Deep South are more concerned (40% likely, 59% not).

Armed Troops At Polling Stations Would Have Negligible Impact Registered voters are ambivalent toward the presence of armed police at polling stations. Nine in ten (89%) registered voters say the presence of armed police would have no effect on the likelihood they would vote this year. When asked to choose, registered voters tend to say it would make them more (39%) rather than less likely (12%) to vote. The presence of troops could make it less likely young voters (29% of those under 30), those in their thirties (27% less likely) and non-whites (28%) would come out to vote.

One In Ten Have Already Voted; Up To A Quarter May Vote Before November 2 One in ten registered voters say they have already cast their vote via early voting or absentee ballot, and as many say they will vote early between now and election day. Among likely voters, as many as one in four could eventually vote early. Overall, early voters appear no more or less concerned about the legitimacy of the upcoming election than do people who plan to cast their ballot at a polling station on election day.

Methodology The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between October 22-24, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 856 registered voters, 670 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.3 for registered voters, and +/- 3.8% for likely voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa

About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP