The Associated Press/Ipsos CASH Index

Washington, DC --The Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs CASH Index measuring consumer attitudes soared in August to 104.8, up from 92 in July. This is the fourth consecutive month that the CASH Index has risen, and it currently stands at its highest level since January 2004 (106.3). The CASH Index is based on ten questions measuring consumer attitudes, asked monthly since January 2002, when the Index was originally established with an index score of 100. The CASH Index continues on the general upward trend observed since October 2003, when it stood at 74.4. One year ago, the index stood at 89.0. Boom In Personal Financial Situation Among the subindices, the biggest increases are in the Investment Index (102.2, up from 92.2 in June) and the Current Conditions Index (104.2, from 94.8), both of which capture consumers' sense of being able to pay their bills and set aside money in savings. This more than reverses the small dip observed in these indicators between June and July. The Expectations Index continues to rise, and is now at 99.3, up from 96.3 in July and 94.1 in June. The Expectations Index measures consumers' anticipation about the direction of the economy, the job market and their personal finances in the next six months. For all three of these measures, the key factor is the improved view of current personal finances and greater expectations of an improved local economy. More now (29%) than a month ago (23%) rate their current financial situation as "strong" or very strong," and more anticipate the local economy will be better six months from now (40%; 36% in July). The Jobs Indicator is the only subindex that remains unchanged from recent months (104.0, 104.4 in July and June). Americans feel fairly secure in their jobs: half (51%) say it's not likely that anyone in their family or close circle of acquaintances will lose a job due to economic conditions in the next six months, and nearly as many (48%) are more confident now than six months ago about job security for themselves and those close to them. The Political Component Of Consumer Attitudes As noted, the big mover this month is current personal finances. Three in ten (29%; 23% in July) rate their personal financial situation as strong (6 or 7 on a 1-to-7 scale), 23% rate it weak (1-3; 30% last month), with 47% in the middle (4-5). In addition, far more Americans expect their personal financial situation to be stronger (40%) than weaker (6%) six months from now. Americans who are most positive (6-7) about their financial situation include people in prime working age (35% of those in their forties), college graduates (41%), married men (33%) and women (37%), investors (37%) and, of course, people with high household income (52% of those with income over $75,000). Pessimism (1-3 on the scale) is most prevalent among people under 30 (30%), those with no more than a high school diploma (32%), undecided voters (41%) and those with low household income (45% of those under $25,000). So how do these basic pocketbook issues affect political attitudes? Bush-Cheney supporters clearly feel themselves to be better off than Kerry-Edwards supporters do. Nearly all Bush-Cheney backers rate their personal financial situation as moderate (46% rate it 4-5 on the scale) or strong (43% rate it 6-7). While Kerry-Edwards supporters tend to rate their financial situation on the middle of the scale (55%), more say their position is weak (29% rate it 1-3) than strong (16%). The future-oriented indicator appears to be a weaker predictor of candidate preference. Perhaps because the presidential race remains so close, supporters of both parties' candidates foresee that their own personal financial situation will be the same (56% Bush-Cheney supporters; 54% Kerry-Edwards) or better (39% and 38%, respectively) six months from now. However, the improvement in the CASH index this month can't be good news for Kerry-Edwards, especially as past polling has shown that disappointing economic performance and concern about unemployment have been central rallying points for the Democrats' supporters. The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between August 2-4, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge The AP/Ipsos CASH Index is designed to provide a single, handy number that summarizes movement across an array of consumer attitudes, including current assessments and near-term expectations about the economy and personal finances, job security, confidence in the ability to save and invest for the future, and comfort level with making major purchases and other household purchases. Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, a leading global survey-based market research group. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.

For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP