The Associated Press/Ipsos Poll: Three Virtually Tied In West Virginia GOP Governor Race


Charleston, WV (AP) - With more than four in 10 primary voters yet to make up their minds, the Republican race for governor remains a statistical dead-heat among Monty Warner, Rob Capehart and Dan Moore, according to a poll of 302 likely voters. By Gavin McCormick Associated Press Writer Warner, a Charleston developer, and Capehart, a Wheeling attorney, topped the poll with 11 percent each. Moore, a Charleston businessman, registered 9 percent, the April 26-29 random phone survey found. Forty-four percent of those asked said they remained undecided. Joseph "Joey" Oliverio provided the most surprising result, polling 7 percent despite the fact that the Morgantown painting contractor in February tried to withdraw from the race, left the state facing criminal charges and hasn't spent a day or a dollar campaigning. His name remains on the ballot. South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb and Dr. Doug McKinney, a retired Bridgeport urologist, would each receive 5 percent of the vote. Delegate Larry Faircloth, R-Berkeley, would get 2 percent. Three other candidates, Charles "Bud" Railey, Carroll Bowden and James Radcliffe Jr., each received 1 percent. The West Virginia Poll was taken by Ipsos Public Affairs for The Associated Press, the Charleston Daily Mail and WSAZ-TV Channel 3. Its survey of Republicans and independents had a margin of error of 5.6 percent. Warner had the most evenly divided support. He polled best among women (11 percent), those without college degrees (11 percent) and those in households earning less than $50,000 a year (12 percent). "I've been around the state for the last 10 months, and I think it's Monty Warner," said John Rominger, GOP chairman in Doddridge County. "He seems to be the one who's got the right ideas and who's got the charisma to win." Capehart did best among men (16 percent), those with college degrees (18 percent) and those in households earning more than $50,000 (15 percent). Warner finished second and Moore third in those categories. Capehart polled especially well among men between the ages of 18 and 49 (20 percent). "What I've heard about Capehart's financial policies I've liked," said Shawn Riker, 21, a substitute teacher in Martinsburg. "I've heard very little about the others. I suppose my vote could change." Moore, who has emphasized his business experience, did best among men 50 and older (18 percent). "The state is a business, and it takes somebody who can run it like one," said Charles Duffield, 65, of Summersville. "For too many years we've sat by and let the workers' compensation system get out of hand." Warner showed the most geographically diverse support, running first or second in the Monongahela River Valley Area (17 percent), the Charleston-Huntington corridor (13 percent), and the Appalachian Highlands, an area that includes the Eastern Panhandle (15 percent). In Berkeley County, "it's probably a toss-up between Robin Capehart and Monty Warner," said Jerry Mays, who served as GOP county chairman until last month. "Monty's leadership talents appeal to people, and Rob has a pure intellect that allow him to encapsulate the state's problems." Capehart topped the poll of those in the Charleston-Huntington area (21 percent), while Moore, a Matewan native, did best in the southwestern coal region (12 percent) and the stretch of counties north of Huntington along the Ohio River (12 percent). Robb's best numbers came in his home Charleston-Huntington area (10 percent), while McKinney's success was concentrated in his home Monongahela River area (20 percent). Bob Antion, 53, a Morgantown mining equipment salesman, said when he heard a McKinney radio ad, "I liked the sound of the guy and felt he represented a conservative approach I'd not heard from the other candidates." Faircloth, who has represented Berkeley County in the Legislature for 24 years, finished fifth (6 percent) even in his home Appalachian Highlands region. The West Virginia Poll was taken by Ipsos Public Affairs for The Associated Press, the Charleston Daily Mail and WSAZ-TV Channel 3. Between April 26-29, 2004, Ipsos Public Affairs interviewed 984 registered voters, 452 Likely Democratic primary voters, and 302 Likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for registered voters, +/- 4.6 for Democratic primary voters, and +/- 5.6 for Republican primary voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please download the Topline Results. For more information on this press release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. 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