Just 10 days until November 3rd. It is, however, a bit of a misnomer to say Election Day anymore, maybe count-day is more appropriate. Early voting is already in motion.
Another milestone, the second and final debate, is over. My initial reaction—it wasn’t much of a game changer. Trump needs one; he is trailing in the polls at both the national level and in the key swing states. Anything, of course, can change. But time is ticking away.
Below are the most relevant polling data points of the week.
- Ignorance is bliss. False myths and half-truths are running rampant on the coronavirus. Bleach might be the cure; kids are immune; let’s just live with the virus. Go figure. The more you drink the Kool-Aid, the less likely you are to mitigate the effects. Look at the data!
- Suburban women. Trump has a female problem. Look at his support among white suburban women. This is a traditional Republican bailiwick. As go the suburbs, so goes the White House? We will see.
- Coronavirus, coronavirus, coronavirus. This election is all about COVID-19. There is no way to spin a virus. Trump has tried; it hasn’t worked. Look at the data. It is clear. Only ten days to go! If it hasn’t changed by now, will it ever?
- Every which way on the coronavirus. Whatever way we cut the data or ask the questions Trump trails Biden on the coronavirus. Would you rather live with some of the inconveniences in order to mitigate, or die living free? America is clear on this. They prefer Biden’s world view, not Trump’s.
- Election day(s). To be clear—the election is happening right now. More than 50 million people—and 24% of the adult population—have already voted. Again, maybe we need to change our cognitive frame. It should no longer be election-day, but count-day! But even this new anointing is fraught with uncertainty as the millions of mail-in ballots must be tallied—before, during and after November 3rd.
For a review of the above, listen to my most recent interview with Morning Briefing’s Tim Farley. As always, be safe and be sane.
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