Cliff’s Take: Coronavirus as King Maker
Only 24 days until the election! Everything nowadays is seen through a partisan lens—only shades of blue and red. Will this subside after the election? Well, we will see.
More practically, Trump is losing his grip on the polls. COVID-19 might be his Waterloo. Though Trump being Trump, he is trying to desperately make a negative out of a positive.
Indeed, who better to be the spokesman for our way forward than someone with the virus? Think about it. Makes sense. But, at this point, many are wondering—is Trump a credible messenger or flimflam man? November 3rd will tell.
Below I detail the most relevant polling data of the week.
- Trump’s COVID problem. Trump’s COVID problem is real. Most Americans see the virus as a threat. Yes, Republicans less so; Dems more. But look at Independents—a majority are scared. In America’s mind—virus equals threat. This is our cold hard truth today.
- It’s COVID, stupid!? This election is all about COVID; the economy less so. This is Trump’s challenge—he is strong on the latter, but not the former. Again, candidates strongest on the main issue of the election win 85% of the time. Trump is in trouble.
- Swing State Pandemic. Trump’s virus problem replicates itself in key swing states. He won them in 2016 and needs them in 2020. The clock is ticking. Downplaying the virus is one strategy—but it has not worked so far. The data has been clear. You can’t spin a virus for long.
- Trump’s make-over. Well, what do they say? If you can’t beat them, join them. And Trump joins the millions of Americans diagnosed with COVID-19. In our pandemic reality show, this allows for a new role—Trump as empathetic, immune, vanquisher of viruses. Is he convincing? Look at the data. Americans don’t think so.
- Demographic slippage. The polls—national and state—are increasingly ugly for Trump. He has lost ground on all key demographics. But look at whites! Isn’t this his bailiwick? Significant losses both among college and non-college educated whites. What’s driving this? The virus.
As always, be safe and be sane. If you are bold, check out my interview with CNN Brasil on the above.
For more information, please contact:
Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]
For more information on COVID-19 please click here
About Ipsos
Ipsos is now the third largest market research company in the world, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.
Our research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data coming from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
“Game Changers” — our tagline — summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients to navigate more easily our deeply changing world.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
