The Demise of "Brand Republican": Much Ado about Nothing?

The prevailing wisdom among pundits is that the Republican Party is in serious, long- term trouble. In the best case scenario, it will spend many years in the political wilderness; at worst it is confronting its imminent demise. Indeed, the argument goes that the Democrats and their party have everything going for them: a friendly agenda with an equally friendly media and favorable long-term demographic and social trends--gloom and doom, in other words, for the Republican Party and the inevitability of Democratic majority rule for a generation.

On the other hand, while agreeing that their party does have its problems, many Republicans say that the electoral defeats of the recent past can be attributed to an extremely unfavorable environment--a bad economy and an unpopular war &ndmore than to underlying long-term trends. As the argument goes, the 2006 and 2008 elections were just bumps in the road. With the proper focus and message, they can bounce back from the current hard times to challenge Democrats for control of Congress much as they did in 1994. America is a center-right country after all and, therefore, will not tolerate "leftist" heresy indefinitely.

Related to this more general debate is a conversation about the trials and tribulations of the Republican brand. Democratic pundits assert that the Republican brand stands for little today and some have suggested that its complete unraveling is inevitable, while their Republican counterparts insist that only better focus will fix it.

Why are brands important, or even relevant to a political discussion? Simply put, they make communicating things easier. Brands are cognitive heuristics that cut through the information clutter by capturing "core values" that communicate what a party or a company, or a product stand for. The "healthier" a brand, the more effective it is at communicating its core values.

What does the Republican brand stand for? The consensus is that the Republican brand has stood on three main pillars over the last 50 years--a strong foreign policy, good government, and family values. Many other secondary issues have been important but this troika has been the mainstay of the Republican Party, particularly since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980.

What does our extensive research show us?

First and foremost, the Republican brand has lost whatever advantage it once held over its Democratic counterpart on its core values: foreign policy, family values, and good government. In contrast, Democrats have been consistently strong on their core issues. The short-term implication here is that the Democrats will have a much easer time making their case than the Republicans. Indeed, they draw on a solid base of credibility, while Republicans do not.

Second, this decline is not recent. Yes, Democrats have gained across all issues because of a friendly 2008 electoral bump. Yet the demise of the Republican brand has been a long-time coming, predating any recent surge by the Democrats. These results bolster the argument which suggests that the Republican dip is much more profound than the "electoral hiccup" it is purported to be.

So what does this all mean?

Here we offer several observations. First, the long-term implications are quite stark for the Republicans if they do not get back to basics. In pollster language, the Republican brand is seen as seriously off-message, confusing in what it stands for.

Of course, this is easier said than done. What does "back to basics mean"? Does it mean making sure that actions and message walk in unison--"talking the talk and walking the walk"? Or does it mean redefining those core values for the 21st Century?

Whatever the strategy, it will be essential for Republicans to make their message meaningful for Americans, meaning talking to those issues most relevant to people. To this point, poll after poll shows that people want real solutions to real day-to-day problems. A recent Ipsos poll (November 2008), for instance, shows jobs as the number one concern, followed closely by health care (see graph below). The Republican brand needs to talk to these issues.

In this context, Republicans must ask themselves one central question: Does the Republican brand stand for what people think is important? The key question looking forward is: does what Republicans think important resonate with the larger population?

This short exercise can not tell us how long the Republican Party's current struggle will continue. However, it does suggest that the GOP will not recover until its brand is once again credible regarding on the values it is supposed to represent, and then makes those values relevant to the issues Americans are most concerned about today.

For a more detailed analysis on the state of the Republican brand, request a download of our full Point of View at: www.ipsos-pa.com/expertise/policycommtrends/DemiseofBrandRepublican/