Going Into the Fifth Democratic Debate, No Candidate Controls a Block of the Party

The second-to-last Democratic debate of 2019 is tonight. With six weeks to go until 2020, the countdown to the DNC primary and the looming general election is on. So, who are Americans supporting going in to the debate?

Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Trackers data tells us that among all the candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden are in the strongest position, though Biden’s support may be tapering overall, while Sanders’ remains strong.

Senator Bernie Sanders has notably improved his support among Hispanics, buoying his overall polling numbers. Over a third (36%) of English-speaking Hispanic respondents support Bernie Sanders.

The Vermont senator has managed to grow that core demographic over the past seven months. No other Democratic candidate currently has support above 20 percent from Hispanics. While a lot could still happen, many Super Tuesday and early voting primaries are home to sizeable Latino populations, such as Nevada, Texas, and California, pointing to a potential advantage.

Black voters are an important part of the Democratic base, and former Vice President Joe Biden is currently leading among this group. Currently 31% of black Americans support Biden. The former Vice President enjoyed a three-month honeymoon period only to then experience a dip in his support among black respondents in the Core Political.

This down swing correlates with the bruising comments Senator Kamala Harris made regarding Biden’s voting record on issues like segregated schools and busing. Senator Harris experienced a brief surge among black respondents, only to steadily lose support among all demographics. Biden’s support among black Americans has returned to approximately the same level it was back in April.

Over the past six months, Biden has steadily lost support among white Americans. The front-runner’s support has been nearly cut in half from a high of 29% to a low of 16% among that demographic. That puts him roughly on par among white respondents with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, the two candidates closest to Biden in the national polls.

Overall, white respondents from the Core Political are largely divided between the top tier candidates. Senator Elizabeth Warren has grown her support across all demographics, though white support for Warren has surged the most since the Senator’s start. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in a similar position, deriving his core support from white respondents and making modest gains in support among black Americans. Though still not a front-runner, Buttigieg has moved ahead of Harris.

While the field of contenders continues to grow—with Deval Patrick entering the race last week and Michael Bloomberg reportedly planning to officially join the race as well – the number of candidates who will be invited on to the stage is narrowing. The DNC ramped up their eligibility requirements for the last debate of the year in December. With no clear front-runner and each candidate fighting to attract different blocks of the Democratic party, expect the stakes to be even higher going forward.