Democrats hold 9-point edge on midterm congressional ballot

Washington, D.C., October 26, 2026 – An Ipsos analysis of the October Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey conducted October 22-26 finds that the Democratic Party holds a 9-point edge over the Republican Party among likely voters on the 2026 generic congressional ballot. Overall, 53% of likely voters say they would vote for or lean to the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 44% who say they would vote for or lean to the Republican candidate.

The election comes amid building public frustration with the Trump administration on economic issues. Among all Americans, just 25% approve of how President Donald Trump is handling the U.S. economy, while only 20% approve of his handling of the cost of living. The president's overall approval rating remains at a near low for his presidency, with just 32% saying they approve.

As ratings of the administration have soured, the Democratic Party has gained ground as the party seen as better able to handle the U.S. economy (34% prefer the Democratic Party, 28% the Republican Party). This Democratic advantage is a shift from historical patterns and represents a major change in public assessments since January 2025, when the GOP led on the economy by 17 points.

In recent months, signs of softening support for the president have become visible within the Republican base. In the current survey, 62% of Republicans approve of the president’s handling of the economy, and just 48% approve of his handling of the cost of living. Republicans are now more likely to say they approve of his job performance “somewhat” (42%) rather than “strongly” (34%) – a change from the start of Trump's second term.

As has been the case throughout the fall, Democrats continue to express more strong enthusiasm than Republicans toward voting in this fall's midterm elections.

Click here to see the study topline.

About the Study

This Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted October 22-26, 2026, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,679 general population adults aged 18 or older.

The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race and ethnicity, census region, metropolitan status, education, household income, 2024 vote choice, and political party identification. Political party identification benchmarks are from the 2026 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2026 March supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS).

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or higher)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• 2024 Vote Choice (Trump, Harris, Another candidate, Did not vote)
• Political Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.03. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The likely voter weight supports estimates for the population of likely 2026 midterm voters nationwide. The weight is applied to respondents who are registered to vote and express an intention to vote (or already voted) in the midterm election. The likely voter weight aligns this set of respondents to likely voter targets from the L2 national registered voter file and the 2022 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement. The set of weighting variables includes age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, education, and county voting history (2016, 2020, 2024).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Alec Tyson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
[email protected]

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