The economy: Key insights, data and solutions on inflation, recession, consumer confidence and more
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The economy: Key insights, data and solutions on inflation, recession, consumer confidence and more

The economy: Key insights, data and solutions on inflation, recession, consumer confidence and more

Here’s Ipsos' latest and greatest data on the economy for business leaders, policymakers and insights professionals

When it comes to the current economic outlook in the U.S., uncertainty abounds. Ipsos data can help. Here’s our latest research on the economy – from tariffs and stagflation to the cost-of-living crisis – and exclusive insights on what it means for brands, businesses, policymakers, and people.

Key takeaways:

 

More say the economy impacts how they spend

71% of people say they make a budget, and almost half now say they stick to it (up from just 32% in 2022). Part of that is that when prices go up, it doesn’t break the budget. It just means they (60%) “can’t buy the things they need.” That’s “need,” not “want.” That’s why a third more people (46% up from 34%) say they are pulling from savings to cover expenses. Which leads us back to the all-important stat from a recent Consumer Tracker, that half of Americans spend their entire paycheck on their monthly bills. (Read more.)

More Americans are cutting back on streaming and repairs

Seven in ten are spending more on food at home and less on dining out and travel. Four in ten have put off a vacation, or a big-ticket purchase like an appliance, car or home renovation. But the growing areas of cutbacks are streaming services (39% have canceled one in the last six months, up from 31% two years ago) and home and car repairs (also 39%, up from 27%). (Read more.)

Nearly half of Americans don’t have any cash left over after paying bills

The number of Americans who say that they don’t have any money left over after paying their bills is up 7 points from May to 48%, which ties a high not seen since August of 2022, when inflation rates were in the middle of their steep post-pandemic climb. (Read more.)

Lower and middle earners split on taking on or paying down debt this year

In terms of debt and credit, a plurality of both households making under $50,000 and those making over $100,000 have neither taken on more debt, nor paid down debt since the start of the year. The upper-income households are twice as likely to have paid down debt (39%) as taken on more debt (17%). But those in the middle are more likely to have had a change, and are evenly split – 36% say they have taken on more debt and 38% say they have paid down debt.(Read more.)

Fewer Americans are planning to cut back on items due to tariffs

Across each of the product categories we asked about, none saw a rise in people saying they would cut back. Some more discretionary purchases (books, large electronics, alcoholic beverages) saw reasonable declines even. For the more necessary purchases (food, snacks, dairy, household goods) there was very little movement since the last time we asked in April. (Read more.)

American attitudes to Trump’s economic policies


 Even Americans do not fully support the ‘America First’ approach. Americans are more likely to think that the President’s economic policies will negatively affect their finances  than benefit them (41% to 33%). They also think it will have a negative impact on the US economy (48%) and the global economy (46%). (Read more.)

Despite overall uncertainty, we are somewhat confident in spending

Our confidence in spending on bigger ticket items is pretty stable since the last time we asked this in (checks note) November, 2023. That seems like an eon ago and a very different world. But despite all of the uncertainty we see in the Vibe Check and the Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index, about as many are confident in investing, or taking out loans or buying a new home. (Read more.)

Half of Americans don't know what will be tariffed

Nearly three in four Americans now think tariffs will raise prices on the goods they buy, including a majority of Republicans. And slightly more (31%, up 5 points from early February) say they are stocking up on items they think will be impacted. (Read more.)

Four in five Americans are concerned about the cost of living, rising inflation

 

Americans remain highly concerned with inflation and the cost of living. Fewer, but still majorities, are concerned about a potential recession or the stock market. But what is clear: economic anxieties are widespread. (Read more.)

How tariffs could impact product categories

We tested 12 categories, from large electronics, to snacks, to staples like paper products. In each, more would cut back than stock up. Household categories like dairy, detergents and cleaners, paper products and over-the-counter medications found people saying there would be no impact, they just need to keep buying them even if they cost 10% more. But for items that are more discretionary, at least one in three said they would have to cut back. (Read more.)

Less than half of Americans support Trump's tariffs

Less than half of Americans support tariffs, but support is unsurprisingly divided across partisan lines. Two Americas: one red, one blue. (Read more.)

U.S. tariffs set social media on fire around the world 

Across languages, continents and social platforms, conversations around tariffs grew more than 600% between April 1 and April 3, and have remained elevated since. And the tone of the conversation is clear, according to Synthesio’s AI-powered sentiment analysis: 79% of mentions have been negative, with only 6% positive and 15% neutral. (Read more.)

Most Americans expect the prices of a variety of goods will increase

Most Americans say prices on a variety of goods will increase due to tariffs, while just one in five say they have seen grocery or gasoline costs go down in the last three months. Two in five say they have had to delay making a purchase because they didn’t have the money (39%), 21% say they have been unable to pay a bill on time, and 16% say they had to go into debt or use retirement savings to make ends meet (16%) over the last three months. These levels are roughly in line with previous Ipsos polls conducted in late 2024 and early 2025. (Read more.)

Most Americans think a recession is coming

61% overall think the U.S. is headed for a recession in the next year. And only 24% think the economic news they read is positive. But under that are huge party splits: Nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans think the recession is coming (82% vs 44%). And Republicans are more than twice as likely to be getting positive economic news (41% vs 16%). (Read more.)

Americans feel the economy, national politics are on the wrong track

Forty-nine percent of Americans say that the country is headed off on the wrong track, 34% of say that the country is headed in the right direction and 16% don't know. When it comes to specific issues, a majority of Americans also believe that the national economy (53%) is off on the wrong track, as is their cost of living (64%). A plurality say that employment and jobs (44%) are also off on the wrong track. (Read more.)

Americans agree that the economy should be a political priority

Americans are most concerned about political extremism, the economy and immigration. By party affiliation, Republicans are most concerned about the economy and immigration, while nearly half of Democrats are most concerned about political extremism or threats to democracy, and independents are split between the economy and political extremism as the most important issues. (Read more.)

Are people feeling tariff price increases already? 

An increasingly large majority (now 70%) believe that tariffs will raise prices on the goods they buy. But only one in three think it’s fair for companies to pass along the cost of tariffs in the form of higher prices. (Read more.)

Some new signs Americans are worried about their budgets

Since October, we've seen an uptick in people looking to reduce their recurring overhead, or finance it. More people said they’d cut back on cable (28%, an increase of 6 points), streaming services (33%, +7 points) eliminate landline phone service (20%, +7 points), and open a new credit card (25%, +6 points). And in a related question, we see slightly more say they are going to move money to safer investments (20%, +5 points). (Read more.)

Inflation tied with crime and violence for top concern across 29 global countries

Inflation as a worry across 29 countries remains at 32% expressing concern. Following President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Canada, concern over rising prices among Canadians has surged, with the proportion expressing worry climbing five percentage points to 49%. However, this uptick is not unprecedented — February 2024 recorded an even higher peak, marking the highest level of concern that year, five points above the current figure.  (Read more.)

The housing market is crunched, and Americans are feeling it

What we found: In the three months since we last asked Americans about housing, there’s a 5-point bump in people who think there aren’t enough homes on the market where they live. Likely related, there’s a 6-point bump in people who say their communities need to approve building more affordable housing. One in three say they’d like to move, but are stuck because they have a low mortgage now. (Read more.)

Americans' attitudes on the economy going into 2025

More than four in ten in each part say that after paying their monthly bills they don’t have any money left over to spend on the things they want. That number is much lower than the height of the post-pandemic inflation rush, but hasn’t changed since May, despite a strong economy. (Read more.)

Further reading

 

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