Washington, DC, April 25, 2023 —The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that Donald Trump continues to lead in support for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, followed far behind by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In hypothetical matchups versus President Joe Biden, the margin between Trump and Biden is slimmer than that for Biden and DeSantis. While the majority of registered voters agree that neither Biden nor Trump should run again in 2024, party-line divisions exist as most Democrats say Biden should run again and most Republicans say Trump should run again.
Ahead of the 2024 Republican presidential primary, half (50%) of Republican registered voters say they would support Donald Trump, while only a quarter (24%) say the same for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In hypothetical matchups versus President Joe Biden, both Trump and DeSantis fail to secure majorities among registered voters; however, the margin between Biden (43%) and Trump (38%) is slightly lower than between Biden (43%) and DeSantis (34%) (5 points vs. 9 points, respectively). In a Biden versus DeSantis versus Trump hypothetical matchup—where DeSantis is the Republican candidate and Trump is the independent candidate—support for Trump and DeSantis is essentially split. Forty-four percent of registered voters say they would vote for Biden while 23% say the same for Trump and 22% say the same for DeSantis.
When asked if Trump or Biden should run for president again in 2024, the majority of registered voters say no (63% and 69%, respectively). More than half of registered voters say Biden (75%) and Trump (54%) are too old to work in government, and half of registered voters say Biden (50%) and Trump (58%) do not represent and understand the American people well. These negative perceptions may explain why most registered voters do not want either to run again in 2024. Trump does have a slight leg up against Biden, however, when asked whether they are up to the challenge of running for president: 52% of registered voters say yes for Trump while only 43% say yes for Biden.
Ultimately, though, a majority of registered voter Republicans (61%) and a plurality of registered voter Democrats (48%) agree that Trump and Biden, respectively, should indeed run for president again in 2024.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 21-24, 2023, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 445 Democrats, 361 Republicans, and 111 independents.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.3 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 6.3 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 11.4 percentage points for independents.
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