Expectations of the economy in a second Trump presidency

One of President-elect Donald Trump’s biggest strengths as a candidate was the economy.

His campaign was filled with promises to “end inflation” and usher in a more affordable U.S. economy. And given how the economy performed for most (but not all) of Trump’s first Presidency, Americans consistently preferred Trump when it came to the economy over Harris.

Wall Street and crypto investors were certainly excited about Trump’s win. Some economists are a little more pessimistic. But where do ordinary Americans stand when it comes to expectations of a Trump presidency?

Below are five charts on how the economy influenced Americans’ votes, how Americans feel about the direction of the economy, and how these expectations color their expectations about their economic futures.

1. It’s the economy, stupid. Nothing rang truer this election cycle than James Carville’s iconic “it’s the economy, stupid” mantra. The economy was a key motivator for a plurality of voters, helping Trump eke out a close but decisive win. Some things change, some things stay the same.
2. Republican optimism, Democratic pessimism. Partisans have far differing outlooks on the direction of the country than they did a month ago.
3. Expectations for future. Americans are split on their expectations around inflation and their personal economic situation. But unsurprisingly, this is divided along party lines – Republicans are far more optimistic than Democrats.
4. Consumer confidence could flip. Right now, Democrats have higher consumer confidence ratings than Republicans. But if recent history is any indicator, roles could reverse once Trump takes office. Watch this space.
5. Media consumption. Previous Ipsos election polling showed that media consumption habits are correlated with how Americans viewed their grocery and gasoline costs amid a decline in the rate of inflation. This could also affect how partisans view the economy if it thrives or flops under Trump’s presidency. Can we expect the roles to reverse under a Trump administration? We will see.

Whether the economy under Trump can live up to Trump’s lofty campaign promises remains to be seen. Americans are mixed on how the U.S. economy and their personal pocketbook will look under a Trump presidency.

Much of this, however, is divided by partisanship and where Americans get their news. During Biden’s presidency, Republicans were more pessimistic than Democrats. Expect these roles to reverse under Trump.