The final debate doesn’t change the course of the election, but the race isn’t over just yet

While the second and final presidential debate was calmer than the first one, with just over a week left in the election, that change in tone came too little too late for the president. Millions of Americans have already voted; fewer undecided voters are waiting to figure out who to swing for at this stage in the game. This presidential race is different than 2016.

Unlike in the first debate or the vice presidential debate, there were far fewer disruptions and no moment that stole the limelight. In short, the event was easy to ignore. Ipsos’ Twitter Tracker, which collects and analyzes tweets about the debate, registered fewer tweets about the candidates than during the first debate. Even with fewer tweets, the conversation around the debate was largely negative for both candidates.

While Twitter is not the real world, polls registered little movement as well. FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos polling shows the debates did not change how people feel about the candidates. Joe Biden's favorability rating remains unchanged, sitting at a steady 51 percent. The president's favorable rating trails Biden by about 13 points, with his numbers statistically unchanged from the pre- and post-debate survey.

Even though favorability is higher for Biden than Trump, many still view the race as relatively close. Americans put Biden’s chance of winning at 4.93 out of 10, while they give Trump a 4.61 out of 10 chance of keeping the White House. Those marks are practically unchanged from the pre-debate polling.

Among the hot topic of election integrity, little has changed. Sixty-seven percent of viewers before and after the debate believe the election will be fair.

Still, partisanship drives big differences here. Republicans remain less likely to trust the election outright. One in four Republicans told the poll that whether they trust the election depends on who wins. An additional 9% won’t trust the election altogether. Democrats remain more likely to have faith in the election no matter what, with 71% reporting that they will trust the election.

All in all, what Twitter and polling demonstrate is that the debates likely won’t change the race. There are markedly fewer undecided voters this election, meaning Trump doesn’t have the same pool of voters that could swing towards him in the waning days of the campaign. The race, though, continues to be close in the six key swing states that could decide the election.

That is to say, it’s not over until it’s over. If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that there is always more to come. Don’t count chaos out until everything is over.