Flashpoints USA/Ipsos Poll On Consequences Of Iraq War

Washington, DC -- In the days leading up to the handover of power to the interim Iraqi government, many Americans express ambivalence on the conduct and consequences of the war, according to an exclusive poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs for the PBS program Flashpoints USA with Bryant Gumbel and Gwen Ifill. Many Question If Iraqis Or Americans Are Any Safer Now Four in ten Americans (44%) say people in Iraq are safer now than before the war, although more say Iraqis are either less safe (27%) now, or that there has been no change (27%) in their situation. Furthermore, opinion is divided on whether people in the U.S. are more (30%) or less (31%) safe now than before the war (38% no change). Two-thirds (65%) think there should be fewer troops in Iraq six months from now, but only 25% believe this will be the case. Seven-in-ten say there will be as many (33%) or more (38%) U.S. troops in Iraq at year's end. Majorities Back Measures To Preserve Professional Military Half say their confidence in the U.S. military is unchanged (52%) as a result of what has gone on in Iraq (34% more confident, 13% less). Maintaining a professional military received widespread support: 80% support increasing pay and benefits to attract volunteers into active service. Some feel that these military operations should not have had to rely so heavily on reserves; the public is split between those who agree (46%) and disagree (51%) that it was a mistake to have National Guard troops patrolling streets and guarding prisoners in Iraq. More than two-thirds (68%) reject the institution of a draft to ensure sufficient numbers are in uniform in the future. For many, questions about the role of the U.S. military in Iraq strike close to home - nearly half those interviewed (46%) say they personally know someone who has served in Iraq as part of the full-time armed forces or the National Guard, and one in ten (9%) report that they know someone who was injured or killed. Having a personal connection to Iraq does appear to affect attitudes toward the military and the war. Those who know someone who has served in Iraq (58%) are somewhat more likely than those who have not (48%) to say it was "worth it" to go to war in Iraq. Those who have been personally affected are also:

• Less likely to say sending in the National Guard was a mistake (42%); and
• More likely to say their confidence in the military has gone up (40%).

Overall, half (54%) say the handling of the war will influence how they vote in the Presidential race; 31% say it will not. At present, more say Bush (50%) than Kerry (37%) would best handle the situation in Iraq from this point forward. Seven Presidents For The Next War: Choose One If the U.S. were to be involved in a war next year, a quarter (25%) would pick George W. Bush from a list of seven wartime presidents as their preferred Commander-in-Chief. As many would like to see Franklin Delano Roosevelt (24%) in charge, followed by Lincoln (18%) and Truman (14%). Few would choose to put George H. W. Bush (6%), Lyndon B. Johnson (3%) or Woodrow Wilson (1%) at the helm. As an historical event, the second Iraq war pales in comparison to the successful transition from the Cold War. By two-to-one, increased U.S. cooperation with former Cold War enemies like Russia and China (45%) outstrips the overthrow of Saddam Hussein (19%) as the United States' most important foreign policy success of the past 15 years, and each of these represents a more popular foreign policy success than the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan (10%), NAFTA (8%), the first Gulf War (7%) or the intervention in Kosovo (4%). Between June 14-16, 2004, Ipsos-Public Affairs conducted a poll of 1,003 adults nationwide for Flashpoints USA with Bryant Gumbel and Gwen Ifill. The margin of error is 1773.1 percentage points. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP