Half of Americans say the war between Israel and Hamas is important in determining the candidate they will support in November

Washington, DC, May 3, 2024—New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds that about half of Americans say that the war between Israel and Hamas is important in determining the candidate they may support in November. Right now, slightly more Americans trust former President Donald Trump to handle the war between Israel and Hamas over President Biden. However, one in three don’t trust either on the issue.

Americans are divided on the U.S.’s role in supporting Israel and protecting Palestinian civilians. However, more now than in January 2024 feel that the U.S. is doing too much to support Israel in its war with Hamas.

For more information about this study, please click here.

Detailed Findings:

1. Americans are split on whether the war between Israel and Hamas is important in determining the candidate they will support in November, with more trusting Trump over Biden on the issue, though many trust neither candidate.

• About half of Americans (48%) say that the war between Israel and Hamas is important in determining the candidate they may support in November, with 12% saying it is one of the single most important issues and 36% saying it is very important.
• At the same time, Americans are divided on who they trust to handle the war between Israel and Hamas. A plurality (37%) trust Trump to handle the war between Israel and Hamas, with 24% saying they strongly trust Trump. Meanwhile, 29% of Americans say they trust Biden more. One in three Americans say they don’t trust either.

2. On U.S. policy in the war, opinion is mixed on the United States' role in supporting Israel in its war with Hamas and on its role in protecting Palestinian civilians.

• Similarly, Americans are split on whether the United States is doing too much, too little, or about the right amount to support Israel in its war with Hamas. Two in five Americans (40%) feel the U.S. is doing about the right amount. A similar share (38%) feels the U.S. is doing too much. One in five feel the U.S. is doing too little.
• This represents a change from January 2024, when the question was last asked. Now, more Americans feel the U.S. is doing too much to support Israel in its war with Hamas (31% in January 2024 vs. 38% in April 2024).
• When it comes to the United States’ role in protecting Palestinian civilians, a plurality of Americans (38%) feel the U.S. is doing about the right amount, followed by 32% feeling the U.S. is doing too little, and 26% feeling the U.S. is doing too much. This is largely unchanged from January 2024 (January 2024: 39% doing about the right amount, 31% doing too little, and 23% doing too much).

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted April 25 to 30, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2, 260 adults age 18 or older. Forty-five respondents were removed from the data for either refusing to answer 50% or more of all eligible questions or for completing the survey within 1% fastest completion durations.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.1. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. One reminder email was sent for this study.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, and 2020 presidential vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked).

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