Harris has the momentum. The fundamentals say something different

Vice President Kamala Harris’ entrance into the 2024 election has flipped the race on its head.  Her favorability ratings increased and enthusiasm among Democrats is up. If this election were based purely off “vibes”, the ball would be squarely in Harris’ court.

The fundamentals, however, tell a different story.

With the Democratic National Convention being held next week, here are five charts on Harris’ momentum swing and what the fundamentals are saying heading into the final stretch of the 2024 election.

1. Enthusiasm bump. Initially, Trump gained ground after Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the attempt on his life. Things seemed a sure thing for Trump. But since Biden’s exit, the tune has been different. Harris shot up in the polls due to increased enthusiasm among Democrats.

2. The swing states have swung. Polling averages in the swing states saw slight, but significant shifts towards Harris relative to Biden. While still hovering around even, some swing states now favor Harris. But beware! There still is much road to tow.

3. “Weird” is working. Ever since Democrats latched onto the idea of calling Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, “weird”, the slogan has stuck. A plurality of Americans, including the ever-important independents, associate the word “weird” more with Trump than Harris. But will this strategy turn into votes? We will see.

4. Main issues advantage Trump. If this election were just about the “vibes”, Harris would be in the driver's seat. But fundamentals, such as the economy, matter as well. And here Trump commands the lead. Remember the candidate strongest on the main issue wins 85% of the time. In this election, the issue is the economy. Harris will have to make further progress to tilt the odds in her favor. On this point, we will be watching each campaign’s relative effectiveness on the economy. Will Trump turn his focus to this strength? Thus far he has not. Will Harris focus on this critical issue? She just came out with a populist platform to attack price levels. Ultimately, the election will be won on this ground.

5. Will Biden’s approval drag Harris down? Ipsos’ base rate model shows that a ~40% approval rating gives an incumbent roughly a 50-50 chance at reelection. The same approval rating puts their successor in a much worse position. Biden’s current approval of roughly 39% gives his successor just a one in eight odds at winning their election. The structural factors are not in Harris’ favor. Will her “vibes” counterbalance the fundamentals? A dash of humility is essential here. Given everything that has transpired, the past might just not be prologue.

Concretely, Harris gained ground in the last three weeks and rides “the vibes” wave.  But Trump holds the fundamentals. This is strategically critical.

But things can change. Cooling inflation and subsiding fears of a recession could pave way for the economy to take a backseat to threats to democracy as the main issue. This would help Harris.  Remember “the economy” is an issue Republicans perform well on, while “democracy” is one Democrats tend to better on. Conversely, the enthusiasm fever could burn off, making it a slug fest over the economy. That would help Trump.

Ultimately, we have no crystal ball but only the clarity of our indicators. May the race begin!