Hourly Hiring Managers Have Dim Holiday
Hiring Outlook

New York, New York - As the national unemployment rate creeps towards 10 percent, a new Ipsos Public Affairs poll conducted on behalf of Snagajob.com reveals that the outlook for those looking for hourly, seasonal jobs is dim, with the number of available positions being down more than forty percent from seasonal-hiring levels reported in 2007.

Complicating matters, a majority (54%) of managers responsible for hiring employees expect the number of applications they receive to increase this year over last, while four in ten (39%) believe the number of applications will be roughly the same, and just 7% believe there will be fewer applicants this year. In a similar fashion as last year's findings, managers expect that one half (49%) of the individuals they hire this year will be employees that they hired last year, which means that the number of available jobs for first-time seasonal-job hunters is even lower.

The Ipsos Public Affairs survey of over 1,000 American managers who have responsibility for hiring hourly workers found that each manager, on average, expects to hire 3.1 seasonal employees this holiday season, down 16 percent from the 3.7 employees they intended to hire last year. These figures take into account the 53% of hiring managers who don't plan on hiring any seasonal hires this year, and the 57% of managers last year who didn't plan to hire for the 2008 holiday season. Moreover, these managers intended to hire 5.6 seasonal employees in 2007, meaning that this year's figures represent a decline of 45%.

Among those managers who do intend to hire, they intend to hire an average of 6.7 employees, which is 26 percent fewer than the 9 employees they intended to hire last year, and down 40 percent from the 11.2 employees they intended to hire in 2007.

Among those who will not be hiring any seasonal employees this year, 45% indicate that their current staff will take on additional hours or roles to cover the additional workload. Three in ten (30%) indicate that they don't have the budget to hire any additional workers, and one quarter (25%) says they anticipate business to be slower this year, and so they won't need any more employees.

While companies will be looking to hire fewer seasonal employees, on average, most do not believe their sales in Q4 will decline this year. Just one quarter (25%) think their sales will decrease year over year, while a similar proportion (18%) thinks their sales will increase. Most (58%), though, think their fourth quarter revenues will remain even.

Good News For Those Who Can Land A Job...

In every cloud there is a silver lining: those applicants who do get hired will likely earn more money than last year. Specifically, hiring managers expect to pay $10.40 an hour this year compared to $10 last year, likely driven by an increase in the minimum wage in July. Further, a slightly higher proportion of workers will likely receive full-time hours this year (45%) than last (43%). Those working part time hours can expect to work, on average, the same number of hours this year as last (19.6 hours a week).

More good news is that hiring managers say, on average, they'll retain a majority (51%) of their seasonal hires to stay on after the holiday season is over. This proportion is higher than the 46% of seasonal hires managers intended to keep on last year.

However, potential applicants will have to act quickly as many hiring managers have already begun to hire for the season: One third (36%) of hiring managers began in September (23%) or earlier (13%), but the bulk of managers will begin in October (39%). Some will only begin to hire in November (19%) or even as late as December (5%).

Most will have their seasonal hiring wrapped up in October (27%) or November (34%), but one quarter (24%) will continue to hire straight through till December. Nearly two in ten (15%) say they finished hiring by the end of September.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted September 11 - 17, 2009. For this survey, a national sample of 1,005 hiring managers for hourly jobs from Ipsos' U.S. online panel were interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the U.S. adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 of what the results would have been had the entire adult population of the United States had been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact: Aaron Amic Vice President Ipsos Public Affairs 612-205-4733 [email protected]

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

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