How has the race changed since Harris entered?

The summer of 2024 is over. It was certainly one for the books. We saw two attempted assassinations on a former President and the leading Republican candidate, a debate that ended so badly for an incumbent President that they dropped out of the race, and a shortened nomination process for the Democratic party.

This unprecedented flurry of events rattled public opinion, leading to several weeks of volatility across the polls. We’re in the final stretch of the election. With the dust settling, where does the presidential race stand?

Below are five charts on where the presidential race has moved to since Harris entered the race.

1. The national polls. Polling averages saw major swings after Harris’ surprise entrance into the race but have remained relatively stable over September. The race is stabilizing (for now).
2. State polls remain tight. While the swing state polls initially swing toward Harris, over the past few weeks, swing state polls remain roughly tied. Given the particulars of the Electoral College, these states are more important than the national ballot as a whole. Signs point to a tossup.
3. This is one area that has seen some change. Harris’ favorability shot up both after taking the mantle over from Biden and after her performance in the second Presidential debate. Watch this space.
4. Economy matchup. The ballot and Harris’ popularity may have shifted after Harris took over for Biden, but Americans’ preferred candidate on the economy hasn’t. Though there’s evidence that Harris’ “opportunity economy” is landing among some, Trump is still seen as having a better plan for the economy over whoever the Democratic candidate is. The economy is consistently the top issue among Americans. This could be the winning issue for Trump, as long as he can keep it a focal point of his campaign.
5. No indicators swing towards Trump. Even if some indicators don’t favor Harris, importantly, none have swung towards Trump since Harris took over. On the other hand, indicators like mentions and betting odds have swung towards Harris as she makes some inroads on the economy.

The extraordinarily volatile period we saw in the summer appears to be over, and the dust seems to be settling. Yes, Harris has benefitted from an increase in fundraising and attention. She’s also seen a bump in favorability, following her ascension to the top of the ticket and her debate with Trump.

Even so, the race seems to be settling in and it is incredibly close. The national polls and the swing state polls have remained stable. Harris seemingly has an advantage in the popular vote, but with the swing states having razor-thin margins, the Electoral College is seeming more like a toss-up. But if the past few months have taught us any lessons, it’s that an October surprise could be lurking around the corner. Watch this space.