Who has the winning presidential campaign?

The 2024 presidential race has been far from conventional. With the dust finally settling (for now), campaign effectiveness at turning out voters will likely play a critical role in determining who wins the White House.

After President Joe Biden dropped out just four months before the election, Vice President Kamala Harris has been working on a shortened campaign cycle. Former President Donald Trump has had four years to prepare his campaign but was forced to recalibrate after Harris’ sudden arrival on the scene—these are turbulent times.

Below are five charts on where the fundamentals and momentum of the race stand, whether the conventions or debates affected the race, and the effectiveness of Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns.

1. Fundamentals vs. momentum. The fundamentals of this race remain in Trump’s favor. But the momentum – fundraising, polling averages, and probability of winning – has swung towards Harris. A win for the Harris campaign.
2. Were there any convention boosts? In the past couple election cycles, convention boosts have mostly been limited to under two percentage points. This cycle, a potential post RNC bump in the polling averages for Trump was disrupted by Harris’ entrance into the race, even though he did see a slight boost in favorability ratings after the first attempted assassination. Harris, on the other hand, saw a slight post-DNC bump. Another point for Harris.
3. How did the debate affect the election? Some debates can have major impacts on the election – just look at the first presidential debate this year or the debates that helped Barack Obama win in 2008. However, polling averages thus far suggest the Harris-Trump debate hasn’t been as impactful. With a third presidential debate not happening, this seems to be the extent of the debate impacts.
4. Attention economy. Harris has controlled most of the attention on the economy since becoming the leading Democratic candidate. This was an area Trump previously dominated. Another ball in Harris’ court.
5. Campaign messaging effectiveness. Americans’ two biggest priorities for the next president are getting inflation under control and building an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed. Inflation remains a key strength for Trump, but Harris’ “opportunity economy” messaging seems to be working for her campaign.

What is and isn’t working for both campaigns? The biggest winning issue for Trump seems to be inflation, while Harris’ “opportunity economy” messaging seems to have broken through. The Harris campaign has also been able to effectively steal the momentum and attention away from the Trump camp. That said, with Trump leading on the fundamentals, it remains to be seen whether these wins from the Harris campaign will be enough.

This has been an unusual and historic presidential election cycle, the likes of which the country has never seen. All signs are pointing to a race with razor-thin margins as we enter the final stretch of the election. With such a tight race, the campaigns and their effectiveness matter now more than ever.