How a (hypothetical) conviction in Trump’s criminal cases may affect the election

The first criminal trial of former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is underway.

A criminal charge against a former president is unprecedented in U.S. history. The trial, too, is shaping up to buck precedent given the high stakes and the uniqueness of the person in question.  

Of course, how this trial (and the rest of Trump’s trials) pan out is uncertain. But hypothetically, how would a conviction, or even a jail sentence, affect how Americans view Trump and the election in November?

Below are five charts on where Americans stand on Trump’s trials and how they might react to a conviction.

1. On Trump’s cases, there’s not a lot of middle ground. For most partisans, the criminal cases seem to either reinforce or not change perceptions they already had of Trump. That said, on the whole, Americans are more likely than not to say the criminal cases don’t positively impact their likelihood to vote for him.
2. Americans aren’t confident that jurors can put aside their views on Trump. Few Americans feel confident that the court can find jurors willing to put aside their prior beliefs when it comes to Trump’s trials. The media attention and near universal familiarity with the former president made the jury selection somewhat bumpy in the New York case. Now, as these jurors hear the case and rule on a verdict, will Americans trust the outcome?
3. Electoral ramifications. The majority of Americans say they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were convicted or serving time in prison. This holds true even among Trump’s most loyal base. A conviction or prison time could convince some 2020 Trump voters to not vote for Trump this cycle. In presidential elections with razor thin margins, losing supporters like this could be the difference between winning and losing.
4. How a conviction – or jail time – could affect the election. A conviction or jail time could swing the election based on what Americans are saying right now. Keep in mind, though, that this is highly hypothetical scenario that assumes people don’t change their minds between then and now. A lot can change, but this is where things stand now.
5. Republicans are already skeptical of the trials. A conviction or jail time for Trump in these criminal cases could theoretically swing the election. Whether it actually does will likely come down to how Americans perceive the trial itself (including how partisan media portrays the trial). Among Republicans, for example, most feel the charges are politically motivated and don’t feel Trump can get a fair trial. The seeds of doubt are sowed.

Trump’s criminal cases are overall more likely to make Americans less likely to support Trump, and the writing on the wall suggests that a conviction or jail time could erode a significant minority of Trump’s base; bad news for the former president given that modern presidential elections tend to be decided by a few thousand voters.

That said, the benefit of being an anti-institution candidate is that institutional roadblocks tend to have less of an impact on you. Thus far into Trump’s political career, that seems to hold true: Trump has been somewhat impervious to controversies and legal troubles that would have doomed any other political candidate. Will these cases be the same? We will see.