How impactful will immigration be in the election?

Immigration reemerged as a national topic of debate after former President Donald Trump brought up the since-debunked story claiming Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio on the national stage.

In today’s politically divisive landscape, immigration stands out as especially polarized. While it’s a key concern among Republicans, few Democrats say the same. Similarly, Republicans and Democrats stand far apart when it comes to immigration policy.

But while immigration was an issue Trump won on in 2016, there are signs suggesting immigration may be fading into the backdrop after being a major issue at the start of the year.

Below are five charts on where Americans stand when it comes to immigration, how Americans feel about various immigration policies, and how varying media silos could amplify the issue of immigration heading into the election.

1. Concern with immigration as a lagging indicator. Concern with immigration rises and falls just behind the number of immigrant encounters reported by the U.S. Border Patrol. With the number of immigrant encounters continuing to decline after reaching historic highs in late 2023, will concern with immigration continue to drop as well? Watch this space.
2. Trump strength. Immigration is a weakness for Vice President Kamala Harris and a political strength for Trump. The more Trump can make the election about immigration, the better he will fare. But if the concern with immigration continues to decline, the more Harris stands to benefit.
3. Immigration policy is divisive. Americans have two contrasting visions when it comes to what to do about immigration. Republicans are more likely to prefer securing the U.S.-Mexico border or deportations; Democrats are more likely to prefer offering pathways to citizenship or providing asylum. Two Americas; one red, one blue.
4. Increasing polarization. Democrats and Republicans were aligned on nativist sentiments just 30 years ago. Now, it’s a polarizing force. In 2016, Trump was highly effective at using nativist sentiment as a motivating force for his base; this election will not be an exception.
5. Prone to misinformation. Earlier in the year, we saw that media source is a key driver of immigration-related misinformation. Americans aren’t just politically polarized – they live in polarizing information spheres that shifts their sense of reality. The emergence of the spread of the fake stories alleging that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were eating cats is a key example of this. Sensationalized stories can temporarily shine a spotlight on immigration. Can we expect to see more heading into the election? We will see.

With the number of immigrant encounters at the border continuing to decline, signs suggest that immigration might fade as an issue heading into election day.

However, for Trump, immigration is an advantageous issue. The more the election is about immigration, the more he stands to benefit. Given the declining immigrant encounters at the border, Trump may have to rely on the emergence of incendiary stories about immigration, true or not, if he wants to refocus the election on immigration. But that also poses risk for Trump – most Americans aren’t tied into the same information silos that Trump is. How will this issue shape out in November? We will see.