How the Middle East might impact Biden’s presidential campaign

The war in the Middle East escalated this week as Iran and Israel increased tensions, using drone and missile strikes to attack one another. Domestically, in the United States, tensions remain with widespread protests on college campuses like Columbia University. In this election year, what does this all mean for President Joe Biden?

Biden’s handling of the war in the Middle East has not been popular among Americans. Perhaps even more concerning for Biden, it’s divided the Democratic party itself.

In states like Michigan and Wisconsin, swaths of Democratic primary voters voted for “uncommitted” instead of Biden as a way to protest his administration’s handling of the Israel/Hamas war. With Biden’s numbers on the upward trend but still not on solid ground, it is worth considering how this issue is playing out for his base.

Below are five charts on how Biden’s handling of the Israel/Hamas war may be affecting his level of support among the Democratic base and whether it might come to haunt Biden come November.

1. How is Biden is performing among Democrats? Roughly one in four Democrats aren’t planning to vote for Biden right now. Among these Democrats, the majority say they aren’t planning to vote, would vote for “someone else,” or just don’t know yet. Is the war in the Middle East turning some Democrats away from Biden? Opinion is split with around 13% of Democrats who say they aren’t voting for Biden also saying that Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive.
2. Who are the Democrats Biden struggles with? Let’s take a look at these Democrats who have both turned away from Biden and feel Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive. Compared to the broader Democratic base, these Democrats tend to be younger, more female, and more diverse. An area of concern for Democrats?
3. Not likely to vote. Democrats who are turning away from Biden and feel Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive are less likely to vote compared to Biden’s committed base. However, Democrats who aren’t planning to vote Biden are overall just much less likely to vote, regardless of their views on Israel. Is it the war in the Middle East or just general disengagement turning these potential voters away? Right now, it’s hard to say. But in an election as close as this one, the margins matter, especially among groups who were instrumental in Biden’s 2020 election victory.
4. Still motivated by the anti-vote. A major theme of this election is the anti-vote. This still holds true among the Democrats turning away from Biden. These voters would still opt for Biden if they had to choose, and they mostly cite a vote against Republican candidate Donald Trump as the reason why.
5. Core Democratic issues. At the end of the day, Democrats still tend to care most about the core Democratic issues, like climate change, abortion, and wealth inequality. Democrats not voting for Biden are more likely to say issues closer to home, like the economy, will be determining how they vote in the next election. And don’t forget “saving democracy,” which may end up being the X-factor this election. That doesn’t mean that Democrats don’t care about issues like Biden’s handling of the Israel/Hamas war, but suggests that the issue landscape is complicated and nuanced right now.

So how caustic is Biden’s perceived weakness on the war in the Middle East? It doesn’t appear to be a major concern among the broader Democratic base, which tends to be more concerned about the core Democratic issues like the economy, abortion, and climate change.

But that doesn’t mean warning signals this early out should be ignored. Polling suggests that Biden may be performing weaker among younger Americans, women, and non-White Democrats perhaps due to the war. These groups helped Biden win in 2020, but they don’t appear as motivated to turn out in 2024. And remember, the margins matter in close elections. Losing a few thousand people on this issue in key swing states could be the difference.