How the Public Is Weighing the Personal Cost of Coronavirus Against the Economy

What you need to know:

• Republicans are more likely to prioritize opening the economy over public health interests, though many still would not leave their homes even if businesses were open.
   
• Democrats are nearly united on staying home and waiting for the public health risks of coronavirus to clear before reengaging with public life.

Around half of Republicans in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll believe the biggest danger to the country right now is moving too slowly to open up the economy, yet only about a quarter (28%) of Republicans are likely to go out to a restaurant, church, or other public place if those same restrictions were lifted tomorrow.

When businesses should open is becoming partisan and contentious, with hundreds of protesters descending on various state capitals demanding that governors lift shelter-in-place orders, with some state officials getting ready to do so. But would those same people frequent those newly opened businesses?

New survey results show that not all of those people would.

Looking at this survey, we find people fall into three categories when it comes to lifting restrictions: those waiting-for-the-green-light, meaning people want to wait to lift restrictions and wouldn’t go to businesses tomorrow even if they could; the open-up-while-going-out people, who want to open up the economy and will go out tomorrow if given the option; and the open-up-while-staying-in group, those who want to open up the economy but will not go out tomorrow even if businesses were open.

About half of Republicans (47%) want to prioritize opening up the economy over public health concerns. About one in five (19%) Republicans specifically fall into the open-up-while-staying-in group. They are primarily concerned with reopening the economy but wouldn’t themselves go out to any businesses tomorrow if given the option. 6% of Democrats fall into this category.

On the other hand, nearly all (93%) Democrats fall into the waiting-for-the-green-light category, unwilling to lift shelter-in-place orders or go out to businesses even if they could. There is a 40-point gap between Democrats and Republicans here, with just about half (53%) of Republicans falling into this group.

28% of Republicans want to open the economy and would patronize businesses tomorrow—the open-up-while-going-out crowd—while only 1% of Democrats are in the same boat.

How are these different groups thinking about their own safety during the pandemic?

There is a link between fear about the coronavirus and willingness to reenter daily life. Only about half of people (48%) who are willing to open the economy and participate in it— are very or somewhat concerned about catching COVID-19 or having someone they know do so.

82% of those waiting-for-the-green-light are very or somewhat concerned about getting coronavirus.

People who want to open up while staying in mirror the rates of personal concern we see in the waiting-for-the-green-light crowd. 73% of the people in the former group are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone they know will get COVID-19, only a 9-point difference between the two categories. For contrast, there is a 25-point difference between people who want to open things back up but don’t want to go out and those willing to open-up-while-going-out.

Despite high levels of personal concern and an unwillingness to go out, people in the open-up-while-staying-in group want to see government action at the same rate as those who are less likely to view the virus as a personal threat.

Messaging from the government and public health officials has been muddled and mixed, especially during the early days of the crisis. Disorder from the top is being absorbed by the public in some dangerous and confusing ways.