Ipsos CASH Index: Consumers More Optimistic Than Pessimistic About Their Economic Future

Interviews for the latest polling were conducted between July 22 to 24 and August 5 to 8, 2003. The margin of error for the questions on each rolling average of two consecutive surveys totaling 2000 adults is 177 2.2%, nineteen times out of twenty. Washington, D.C. -- The Ipsos National CASH Index (measuring Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) continued to hold steady in early August, continuing a 2-month stabilizing trend. However, consumers are more optimistic than pessimistic on the state of the economy and their personal finances six months from now.

View Larger Version The Ipsos CASH Index includes two questions regarding prospects for personal finances and the local economy six months from now. The actual question wordings are:

• Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
• Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

Overall responses to these questions have stayed relatively stable over the past two months; however, some interesting variability does exist among various subgroups. In the latest survey, groups more likely to say their local economy would be stronger (total) six months from now include:

• Individuals age 65+ (40%)
• Men age 45+ (40%)
• Hispanics (40%)
• Republicans (50%)
• Individuals who approve of the overall job Bush has done as President (47%)
• Individuals with a household income of $75K+ (43%)
• Individuals who feel the country is heading in the right direction (49%)

Groups more likely to say their local economy would be weaker (total) six months from now include:

• Blacks (26%)
• Individuals with a high school education or less (18%)
• Democrats (18%)
• Independents (22%)
• Individuals who disapprove of the overall job Bush has done as President (21%)
• Individuals who feel the country is off on the wrong track (20%)

Groups more likely to predict that their personal finances would be stronger (total) six months from now include:

• Individuals age 18-29 (54%)
• Individuals age 30-39 (51%)
• Blacks (53%)
• Hispanics (57%)
• Individuals who approve of Bush's handling of the economy (45%)
• Residents of the Pacific region (CA, OR, WA) (45%)
• Unmarried men (47%)
• Individuals who feel the country is heading in the right direction (45%)

Groups more likely to predict that their personal finances would be weaker (total) six months from now include:

• Individuals age 65-74 (12%)
• Individuals age 75+ (10%)
• Individuals with a high school education or less (10%)
• Residents of the East South Central region (AL, KY, MS, TN) (12%)
• Independents (12%)
• Independent women (14%)
• Individuals who disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy (12%)
• Individuals who feel the country is off on the wrong track (10%)

The following chart depicts the net change in the most recent monthly CASH Index rating since January 2002 based on each of the factors used to generate the Index.

View Larger Version The National CASH Index is constructed twice monthly throughout the year. In addition, Ipsos constructs regional and demographic CASH Indexes four times per year (at the end of each fiscal quarter), as well as preliminary indices produced at the mid-point of each fiscal quarter). Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, which is the world's second largest polling and market research organization. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.

For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146. For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos-Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos-Public Affairs Ipsos-Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in August 2001 in Washington, D.C., and is headed by veteran pollster Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The division conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of U.S. and international organizations. Typically, the division's studies are based on opinion research, not only public opinion, but often elite stakeholder, corporate and media opinion. Ipsos-Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, the second largest survey-based marketing research company in the world. About Ipsos The Ipsos group is the second largest survey-based marketing research company in the world, and has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999. Ipsos companies offer a full suite of research services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies in advertising, marketing, media, public opinion and customer loyalty research. Member companies, employing more than 3800 staff in 35 countries, also offer in each of their specializations a full range of off-line and online research products as well as custom, syndicated, omnibus and panel services. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP