Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll: Post-war Optimism May Not Translate Into Republican Gains

Between April 1-3, 2003, and April 15-17, 2003, Ipsos US Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,003 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,559 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/-2.2% for all adults, +/-2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C. -- In interviews with 1,559 registered voters conducted April 1-3, 2003, and April 15-17, 2003, the Ipsos Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds a narrowing gap between Presidential approval and overall approval of the direction of the country.

• Consistently, a President's job approval rating tends to ride about 15-20 percentage points above the number who say the country is headed in the right direction.
• For Bush, Republicans were much more likely to say Bush is doing well than to say the country's on the right track, Independents were only somewhat more likely to endorse Bush performance than they were to endorse the direction the country was taking, and Democrats were not particularly more likely to praise Bush performance than to endorse the country's direction.
• Once the shooting war started in Iraq on March 19, and especially since the successful conclusion of that war, feelings that the country is headed right have boomed, while feelings Bush handles his job well rose more slowly. As a result, the gap between job approval and right track has been cut in half in the most recent polls.

In the months leading up to last year's mid-term congressional elections, Democrats believed that presidential approval was inflated. As confidence in the country dipped below 50%, Democrats believed this would translate into electoral success. This scenario obviously did not play out for the Democrats. In the 26-point gap between the number of swing Independent voters who felt the country was headed right (33%) and who felt Bush was doing his job well (59%), there were enough votes to give Republicans control of the House and the Senate. Today, more Republicans and Independents feel the country is headed in the right direction, but the number giving Bush positive job ratings have not increased (in the case of Republicans, Bush approval ratings could hardly go any higher). As a result, the gap between job approval and right track has narrowed from +26 at the midterms to +13 today among Independents, and from +18 to +7 among all voters. For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Public Affairs 202.463.7300