Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll: Republicans Begin To Lose Support Among Independents

Presidential Reelection And Generic Congressional Ballots Show Slight Declines As Republicans Begin To Lose Support Among Independents Presidential Approval Dips Slightly For First Time Since War In Iraq Began; All Aspects Of Presidential Approval Are Apparently Down Except Foreign Affairs

12 May 2003

Between April 15-17, 2003, and May 6-8, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,001 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,532 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/-2.2% for all adults, +/-2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C. -- In interviews with 1,532 registered voters conducted April 15-17, 2003 and May 6-8, 2003, the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds Presidential reelection and generic Congressional ballots declining slightly as Republicans lose some support among Independents.

The current Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds an apparent decline in attitudes toward reelecting George W. Bush. However, the 2-point shift is within the statistical margin of error. While the overall change in opinion is marginal, some interesting partisan differences do exist.
Attitudes toward reelection have stayed the same among Republicans and Democrats. Among swing-voting Independents, however, attitudes change significantly after the conclusion of the shooting war in Iraq. The net change for those who would definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush is -6, and those who would consider someone else is +8.

Current survey results are comparable to early March, when 23% of Independents stated they would definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush and 25% reported they would definitely vote for someone else.
A similar pattern exists with regard to generic Congressional vote. A marginally significant decrease in the support for a Republican Congress is apparent from mid-April to early May; the apparent gains for the Democrats are within the margin of error. However, Independents show significant change, both away from Republican control and toward Democratic control of Congress.

Among Independents, the net change among those who would want to see the Republicans win control of Congress is -6 and among those who would want to see the Democrats win control of Congress, the gap is +4.
The percentage of Independents who currently would like to see the Republicans win control of Congress is roughly comparable with early March (18% versus 21% in early March). However, the proportion of Independents who would like to see the Democrats win control of Congress has increased 10 points since early March, when 21% of Independents favored the Democrats winning control of Congress.
Overall presidential approval marginally declined by two points since mid-April (the first drop since early March). This dip in approval is within the statistical margin of error, however, and overall approval still rests ten points higher than in early March.

A slim majority of Americans still approve of the way President Bush is handling domestic issues.

When it comes to the economy, approval has slightly declined (3 points) since mid-April, but rests 5 points higher than in early March.
On domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy, approval has declined somewhat (3 points) since mid-April, and rests only 3 points higher than in early March.
On foreign policy issues, Bush continues to exhibit strong approval numbers and shows a nominal increase of 1 point since mid-April.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Public Affairs 202.463.7300

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