Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Close To Half (47%) Would Definitely Vote To Re-Elect Bush

Between September 16 and September 22, 2002, Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs interviewed a representative sample of 2,000 adults nationwide, including 1,520 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/- 2.2% for all adults and +/- 2.6% for registered voters.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President George W. Bush has reclaimed center stage in American politics in September. With talk of war with Iraq dominating the news, to the exclusion of political reports in this midterm election year, registered voters are rallying around the President. Most notably, 47% would definitely vote to reelect Bush, 26% would consider someone else, and only 24% would definitely vote for someone else if Bush were on the ballot this year, which he is not.

Bush's rebound--after a summer of unrelieved and persistent decline in the political fortunes of himself and his Republican Party--means a change in the dynamics of the fall election campaign. As the election season begins, voters are decidedly more pro-Republican and positive in their assessment of the status quo than they were last summer.

For the first time since June a majority of Americans feel the country is on the right track, according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls conducted September 16-19 and September 20-22, 2002 with a total representative sample of 2,000 adults and 1,520 registered voters.

Overall, between September 16-22, registered voters feel the country is headed in the right direction (51%) rather than off on the wrong track (42%). That is a fast, decisive shift in the political environment compared to the situation facing candidates as recently as the late August-early September Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll, when 45% of registered voters felt the country was heading in the right direction, 49% wrong track.

Among the most likely voters in the September 16-22 poll, 53% say the country is on the right track, 41% wrong track.

Congressional Party Control Preference In the most recent survey, registered voters split evenly, 43% preferring Republican control of Congress, 44% Democratic control. Among likely voters, 46% prefer Republicans, 44% Democrats.

And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300