Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Coattails by Region: Bush's Re-Elect Scores Fade Outside the South, January - May.

Between May 3 and May 6 and May 17 and May 19, Ipsos Public Affairs interviewed a representative sample of 1567 registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.5%

Washington, DC - Democratic hopes in the 2002 midterm Congressional elections rest on faith that President George W. Bush's stratospheric political strength will inevitably come back down to earth before Election Day in November, and that Democratic candidates for Congress will benefit when that day comes. Since January, Bush has suffered double-digit declines in political standing, as measured by his "re-elect score" in the Ipsos/Cook Political Report surveys of registered voters. Overall, Bush has lost a net total of 13 points since January, with the largest losses in the Midwest and West.

Net Change represents the change since the previous poll in the gap between the number who would definitely vote to reelect Bush President and the number who would definitely vote for someone else. A negative change means movement away from Bush, a positive change is movement in favor of Bush.

In Congressional Preference, Republicans Hold Solid Leads in South, Midwest, and Democrats Rule Northeast. The West is Up For Grabs.

Despite Bush's declining political strength, Democrats have yet to take control of the midterm elections. When Bush was strong in January, Republicans enjoyed a small but surprising advantage in Congressional preference (in most midterm election years, the party of the President is at a disadvantage).

Since then, Democrats have managed only a net 2 point gain on Republicans in Congressional preference, with the gains confined largely to the Midwest and West. Democrats have actually lost significant ground (5 points) in the South since January.

Net Change represents the change since the previous poll in the gap between the number who would prefer that Republicans control Congress minus the number who would prefer Democrats control Congress. A negative change means movement away from Republicans in favor of Democrats, a positive change is movement in favor of Republicans and away from Democrats.

The survey was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, which is the world's fourth largest polling and market research organization, based in Paris. Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in Washington in August 2001, and it is led by Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll is conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service.

The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics." Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political Report's subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos Public Affairs 202-463-7300 [email protected]