Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: DEAD HEAT!

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Registered voters are evenly divided on Congressional partisan preference, with 43% preferring that Democrats control Congress and 43% Republicans if the elections were held today. Preference among the most likely voters stands at 46% Republicans and 42% Democrats, however, in this late July-through-early August Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll.

Most other trends and patterns in the poll, when compared with results from one month ago in late June-through-early July Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll, suggest Democrats enjoy momentum and the advantage over Republicans heading into the last month of summer, particularly with politically Independent voters.

In the past month, President Bush's overall approval ratings and ratings on handling the economy have been shifting negative at a rate of about one percentage point a week.

In the combined results from two polls conducted in late July and early August (the first conducted July 19-21, the second between August 2-4, over this past weekend) with a combined total representative sample of 2,000 adults and 1,550 registered voters nationwide (with a margin of error for adults of 177 2.2; and for registered voters, 177 2.5):

• Bush's overall job approval rating stands at 66% approve and 31% disapprove, which is still a solid 2-to-1 ratio, but down from 70% approve and 28% disapprove in a similar poll conducted in late June through early July.
• Bush's rating on handling the economy stands at 54% approve and 43% disapprove, down from 58%-38% in late June-early July.
• Congressional partisan control preference is tied at 43% prefer Democrats control Congress, 43% Republicans, down from 41% Democrats and 44% Republicans in late June-early July.

Looking only at results from the poll conducted this past weekend, August 2-4, 2002 with 789 registered voters nationwide (margin of error: 177 3.6%):

• Bush's overall job approval rating stands at 65% approve-32% disapprove. Bush's ratings for handling the economy stand at 53% approve-43% disapprove.
• Congressional control preference stands at 46% Democrats and 41% Republicans among all registered voters interviewed over the past weekend.

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The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics." Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political Report's subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300