Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: GONE! Republican Lead in Congressional Party Preference Disappears in March

Between March 1 and 3, then again between March 14 and March 17, 2002, Ipsos Public Affairs interviewed two identical and complete representative samples for a total of 1,612 registered voters nationwide, by telephone. The margin of error is +/- 2.5%. For results from the most recent survey of 802 registered voters, conducted March 14 to 17 only, the margin of error is +/- 3.5%

March Turn for the Worse for the GOP in Congressional Preference

Washington, DC - For Democrats, March came in like a lion but it leaves as a much gentler lamb. Democrats eliminated the Republican lead in Congressional preference among voters nationwide, despite persistent high marks for President Bush's performance in office.

Republicans (41%) and Democrats (42%) are statistically tied on the question of which party voters want to see win control of Congress in November in two Ipsos Public Affairs/Cook Political Report polls conducted in March.

That compares to a 44% to 41% advantage for Republicans, on average, found in a compilation for National Journal magazine of four Ipsos/Cook polls conducted in January and February, with a total sample size of 3,161 voters and a margin of error of +/- 1.8%.

Between the average for four polls in January-February (a 3 percentage-point Republican advantage) and two polls in March (a 1 percentage-point Democratic advantage) Democrats have enjoyed a net change improvement of 4 percentage points.

The Democratic advantage on the Congressional vote is 5 percentage points (still within the margin of error of a statistical tie) in the most recent survey, conducted March 14-17, 2002 among 802 registered voters. In the most recent poll, Democrats lead, 44%-39% on Congressional party preference.

The Ipsos/Cook polls generally report results from rolling averages of two consecutive polls, in order to allow small subgroup analysis. Each poll of about 800 registered voters is a representative sample with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%, however, so results from each wave, standing alone, are meaningful. The most recent results suggest a strong trend developing in favor of Democrats.

The favorable trend for Democrats on Congressional party preference follows a slight "settling" of high positive scores for President Bush that appeared in the mid-February-to-early-March Ipsos/Cook polls. In the average of two surveys, conducted February 15-17 and March 1-3, Bush's re-elect score fell a net 4 percentage points (from 55% reelect Bush-18% definitely vote for someone else in the two February polls to 53% reelect-20% definitely someone else in the late-February/early March polls). In the same mid-February-early-March compilation, Bush's overall job approval scores fell a net 5 percentage points, as did his scores on handling the economy, while his scores on handling other domestic issues fell a net 7 points.

Bush thus seems to have lost some ground in late February, and now Congressional Republicans have lost some ground over the course of March.

Most encouraging for Democrats should be how the Congressional preference question scores across the four broad categories of counties identified in a study Ipsos Public Affairs conducted for National Journal magazine. The study of Ipsos/Cook polls from January and February found Republicans leading not only in weak Bush counties (based on actual 2000 vote results) but also by an even wider margin in weak Gore counties, suggesting that Republicans had made deep inroads into areas Democrats must win in order to achieve a tie vote nationwide. In the March results, however, Democrats have achieved a dead heat with Republicans in weak Bush counties, and Democrats have claimed a lead in weak Gore counties. The Democratic base appears to be slowly returning home.

The biggest shifts in favor of Democrats on Congressional party preference can be found among blacks in the most recent surveys (+12 D), following a similarly large movement two weeks earlier among voters over age 65 (+22 D among 65-74 year olds and +11 D among 75 and older voters). Blacks and the oldest voters are the groups with the largest proportions of strong Democrats, and the movement in favor of Democrats can be described as a movement of strong partisan Democrats in those groups.

Geographically, there has been a steady movement toward Democrats since mid-February among Midwesterners; weak Gore counties are predominantly white, Midwestern suburban counties, and that movement in the Midwest may be attributable to the restoration of Democratic control in counties Gore won narrowly in 2000.

To view the latest poll results and research from Ipsos Public Affairs please go to:

http://www.ipsos-reid.com/media/index.cfm

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos Public Affairs 202-463-7300 [email protected]