Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Red-Blue Vote Analysis for National Journal "Democrats See Red"

Link to National Journal Article.

George W. Bush and Republicans in 2002

After an election in which the two-party vote for President divided 50% for Bush and 50% for Gore, among registered voters today 66% say the country is going in the right direction, 30% say it is on the wrong track. In the counties that voted for Bush, 67% say things are on the right track, as do 63% of those in all Gore counties, and even 62% in the strong Gore counties that gave Gore more than 55% of the vote.

An even greater number, 68%, approve of the job Bush is doing as President. Three-in-five voters (61%) of those living in counties Gore won approve the job Bush is doing as President.

Strong job approval is at an amazingly high level--a 52% majority of all voters--including 56% of those in all red (Bush) counties, and even 45% in all blue (Gore) counties--strongly approve of the job Bush is doing as President.

Bush's scores on handling the economy are also widespread--52% of all voters, 57% of voters in Red Counties, and 46% of voters in Blue Counties approve the job he is doing handling the economy. Democrats who might hope to find a Bush vulnerability in the passing economic slump need to look elsewhere. But strong approval for Bush on the economy is not widespread, with only 36% of those in counties that voted strongly for Bush and 27% of those in counties that voted strongly for Gore giving Bush strong approval ratings on the economy. If the economy tails off again, few voters have strong convictions that Bush should be trusted with handling the economy.

It is in Bush's handling of domestic issues such as health care, education, the environment and energy that divisions between Bush and the electorate begin to appear. Overall, 47% approve the way Bush is handling domestic issues. But when it comes to strong, confident approval of his domestic policy performance, only 26% of registered voters, including just 30% of those in Red Counties and 22% of those in Blue Counties, strongly approve Bush's handling of other domestic issues besides the economy.

Of course, Commander-in-Chief and President Bush is not judged solely on his domestic policy record. He also gets the benefit of widespread approval for his handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism. Overall, 75% approve and 62% strongly approve of how he handles those responsibilities.

Bush would win re-election easily today. A clear majority (55%) say they definitely would vote to re-elect Bush, 24% would consider voting for someone else, and only 18% would definitely vote for someone else. Even among voters in the bright blue Gore strongholds, 45% would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, and only 27% would definitely vote for someone else.

The Congressional Midterm Elections

Congress does not have much a role to play in foreign policy, and even less of a role in fighting a global war on terrorism. Congress overall is stuck with defending a record build primarily on domestic issues, while Republicans also try to gain some relevance to Bush's war on terrorism. On that score, Republicans enjoy an advantage today, but it is an advantage so narrow that it reminds one that the last national election in the U.S. was impossibly close.

Overall, Republicans have a 44%-41% advantage over Democrats when voters are asked which party they would like to see control Congress after this November's elections. In Bush's Red Counties, Republican control of Congress is preferred, 49%-36%. In Gore's Blue Counties, Democrats win, 47%-38%.

Comparing the Bush vote by type of county (from strong Bush to strong Gore) with Bush's reelect score and the percentage who favor Republican control of Congress, what becomes clear is that Bush's stratospheric scores are the result of raids Republicans are making on the Democratic base.

On Election Day 2000, 52% of those in weak Gore counties voted for Gore and 48% for Bush (based on major-party vote, with third parties and independent candidates excluded.) In those weak Gore counties, however, 65% say the country is on the right track with Bush, 54% strongly approve his overall job performance, 32% strongly approve his performance on economic issues (exactly equal to the 32% of all voters who feel that way). In weak Gore counties, 55% now say they would definitely vote to reelect Bush and only 15% would definitely vote for someone else. (Even in strong Gore counties, 45% would definitely vote to reelect Bush and only 27% would definitely vote for someone else.)

When it comes to Congressional preference, Republicans win in weak Gore counties--46% would prefer Republican control of Congress and 39% Democratic control in counties Gore won with 50%-55% of the vote. (In strong Gore counties, Democrats win--51% favor Democratic control and 34% Republican.)

One weakness for Democrats between now and Election Day is the total absence of the kind of economic interests that used to divide Americans, to the benefit of the Democratic Party. What's remarkable here is what we do not find. Across a dozen consumer-oriented questions about the economy, personal finance, purchasing plans, savings and investing and job security, respondents in strong Gore counties were not statistically different in their answers than those from strong Bush counties. There is no foothold in economic interests or divisions that Democrats can exploit right now to build a new party base.

The other weakness for Democrats in trying to make a contest of this year's midterm election is the make-up of their soft support base, the weak Gore counties. Those weak Gore counties comprise a distinctively midwestern, white suburban slice of Middle America, as Republican in preference and outlook as weak Bush counties. Gore made a 50-50 race of it in 2000 because strong Gore counties were slightly more pro-Gore than strong Bush counties were pro-Bush, and because Gore held his own among those in the middle.

With Bush continuing to enjoy strong positive scores on his handling of the economy--and with no signs of economic discontent among Democrats or Republicans--Democrats need to focus their message on the discontent that does appear in the poll on the topics of Bush's handling of domestic issues such as health care, education, the environment and energy.

Of course, Democrats can argue persuasively that the Republicans' narrow 44%-41% lead on the Congressional vote is in a poll in which Bush approval ratings are too high to sustain, and when Bush's scores decline, the Republican lead on the Congressional vote will disappear. In that case, 2002 will look like 2000--an extremely close election.

The analysis is based on the combined data from four Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls conducted in January and February, 2002. The combined sample size for these polls is 3,161 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%. The surveys were conducted for the Cook Political Report by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos-Reid, which is part of the world's fourth largest polling and market research organization, the Ipsos group, based in Paris. Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in Washington in August 2001, and it is led by Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington.

The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder, has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics."

The Cook Political Report is researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C. Subscribers to The Cook Political Report are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions, as well as news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

To view the tables, please download the PDF file.

For more information, please contact: Thomas Riehle, President, Ipsos Public Affairs 202-463-7300 tel [email protected]