Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Which Will Drive The Midterm Vote: Bush's Recovering Standing, Or Consumers' Continuing Concerns?

Between September 3 and September 5, 2002 and between September 16 and September 19, 2002, Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs interviewed a representative sample of 2,000 adults nationwide, including 1,527 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/- 2.2% for all adults and +/- 2.5% for registered voters.

Washington, D.C. -- President George W. Bush's re-elect score has been declining all summer along with (1.) a serious erosion in consumer attitudes, followed by (2.) a persistent decline in the political fortunes of Bush and the Republicans in Congress. Even though consumer attitudes have not recovered in September and continue to decline on a few key measures, Bush's approval ratings have recovered slightly after weeks of war talk, as has sentiment favoring his own re-election.

The combination of persistent consumer concerns on some key issues with a rallying perception of the President's performance seems to be a recipe for a close midterm election, according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls conducted September 3-5 and September 16-19, 2002 with a total representative sample of 2,000 adults and 1,527 registered voters.

Overall, between September 3-19, registered voters prefer that Democrats (45%) rather than Republicans (42%) win control of Congress.

Among 897 likely voters in the September surveys, 45% prefer Republicans, 44% Democrats.

In the most recent poll (746 registered voters), conducted Monday through Thursday, September 16-19, 2002, the Republicans have once again pulled into a tie with Democrats, with 43% of registered voters preferring Republicans win control of Congress and 44% preferring Democratic control in this week's survey.

Congressional Party Control Preference In the most recent surveys, conducted in September, registered voters divide by gender, age and region, with 30-39 year olds and Southerners the most evenly divided.

And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?

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Other key findings on Congressional party control preference:

• Republicans hold a lead among white registered voters (49%-40%), while trailing Democrats among African Americans (83%-3%) and Hispanic voters (58%-27%).
• White voters divide sharply by age, however, with whites under age 45 strongly Republican (54%-36%) and whites age 45 and older evenly divided (44%-44%).

Bush Approval Ratings Fell This Summer, and Now Have Recovered But Concerns on Household Spending, Job Security and Investment Persist: Which Will Have More of an Impact on Voting in November?

Approval of Bush's handling of the economy and his handling of other domestic issues have recovered somewhat after hitting bottom in August. At the same time as Bush has recovered his footing somewhat and regained some standing lost over the summer, the key consumer measures that declined this summer have failed to recover, and some continue to decline. The result: A dead heat on Congressional party preference.

Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?

Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?

Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?

Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children's education?

In the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls this summer, Bush approval ratings on his overall job performance and handling of foreign policy have remained quite high. His scores on handling the economy and handling other domestic issues fell sharply, however. All Bush approval ratings have stabilized or improved in September after a deep August dip, as has his re-elect rating.

Bush Ratings: Overall Job Approval, Approval of Handling of Issues, and Re-Elect Score for Bush

If the election were held today, would you...

Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE, ASK:) Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (IF HAVE MIXED FEELINGS OR NOT SURE, ASK:) If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approve or disapprove?

And when it comes to (READ ISSUE) do you approve or disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue?

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Right Direction-Wrong Track American adults are evenly divided between 47% who feel things are headed in the right direction and 47% who say things are off on the wrong track, in a survey of 2,000 adults. That is unchanged from an August poll, at 46%-48%, and down from 54% right direction-39% wrong track in six surveys with 6,000 adults conducted in April, May and June.

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300