Ipsos response to the 2024 U.S. election results
The 2024 election season has finished, and the Republicans go into 2025 with a strong mandate. At Ipsos this year, we helped tell the critical story: the disillusionment with the establishment coupled with the high cost of living that acted as a tailwind for Republicans. Our election forecasts consistently showed the fundamentals favoring the challenger. As early as August, we said that Donald Trump was the favorite.
Compared to 2016 and 2020, the polling industry performed well. Our final poll estimates nationally and in the swing states were well within the margin of error (our total error was around 3.4 points nationally and 1.6 points in the aggregate of the swing states).
However, we acknowledge areas for improvement, as our national poll did not predict Trump winning the popular vote. As we do in every election, we will conduct a comprehensive review of our methodology and processes to learn and improve from these experiences. Polls are currently in the field to re-interview respondents about their voting behavior, and we plan to share these findings with the wider community.
As an independent, nonpartisan firm, Ipsos takes its societal role seriously and is honored to have contributed to this pivotal election.
National Performance:
| Candidate | Ipsos Polling | Results[1] |
| Donald Trump | 48% | 49.9% |
| Kamala Harris | 50% | 48.4% |
| Other | 2% | 1.7% |
| Trump—Harris | -2 | 1.4 |
Swing State Performance:
| Candidate | Ipsos Polling[2] | Results[3] |
| Donald Trump | 50% | 50.7% |
| Kamala Harris | 49% | 48.1% |
| Other | 1% | 1.2% |
| Trump—Harris | 1 | 2.6 |
Total Absolute Error:
| Total Absolute Error | |
| National | 3.4 |
| Swing State | 1.6 |
[1] National results based on estimates.
[2] Aggregate sample of seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
[3] Based on estimate of the vote count in the swing states.
