Ipsos/Cook Political Poll: A Politically Weakened President Approaches Decision on War

Between February 18-20 and March 4-6, 2003, Ipsos US Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,009 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,545 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/-2.2% for all adults, +/-2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C., March 10, 2003 -- If the election were held today, only 39% of registered voters are sure they would vote for the reelection of President George W. Bush, and 34% would definitely vote for someone else, a five-point margin in the President's favor, in a poll conducted February 18-20 and March 4-6, 2003 among 1,545 registered voters. That is a dramatic decline in Bush's political standing domestically.

• A year ago, in the first quarter of 2002, Bush enjoyed a 34-point edge, 54%-20%.
• In January of this year, Bush enjoyed a 10-point edge, 41%-31%.
• A month ago, in the January 21-February 6 poll, Bush led by 9 points, 41%-32%.
• It does not look like this has hit bottom.

In fact, among 781 registered voters interviewed March 4-6, 38% would definitely vote to re-elect Bush and 37% definitely voting for someone else--a statistical dead heat. Findings Now, Compared to January 7-23, 2003 Poll Standing Comparing current results from the March Ipsos/Cook polls with the January Ipsos/Cook polls shows how support for Bush's leadership has fallen among many groups of voters:

• Independent voters fell from + 7 (30% definitely Bush - 23% definitely someone else) to a 23%-23% split.
• Bush now loses in both the Northeast and the West (with a -12 drop in the West, and particularly in the Pacific Coast states, where Bush trails those voting for someone else by 29%-40% in the most recent poll)
• Not shown in the following tables, but significant: only 44% of whites would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, a figure that has trailed consistently and significantly below 50% in 2003.

By Gender and Age If the election were held today, would you...? By Region and Party I.D. If the election were held today, would you...? These findings are confirmed in a separate study Ipsos Public Affairs is currently conducting on political and economic attitudes in 9 countries (the G-8 plus Spain), to be released in the next week. In the U.S. interviews in that study, when adults nationwide are asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for President if the election were held today, 37% would vote Republican, 34% Democrat, with the rest saying it depends on the candidates, or they are not sure. For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos Public Affairs 202.463.7300