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Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll: Consumer Sentiment More Effective In Tracking Presidential Approval

Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll: Consumer Sentiment More Effective In Tracking Presidential Approval

Direction Of The Country Is More Effective When The National Economy Is Not Topping The List Of Most Important National Issues

9 June 2003

Between May 20-22, 2003, and June 3-5, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,000 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,573 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/-2.2% for all adults, +/-2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C.-- In interviews with 1,573 registered voters conducted May 20-22, 2003, and June 3-5, 2003, the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds Presidential approval moving back toward tracking consumer attitudes. Presidential Approval Follows Consumer Sentiment

Levels of Presidential approval regularly track direction of the country. However, tracking data from the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report and the Ipsos National CASH Index (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) show that since 2002, consumer sentiment has been a more effective reference point when speaking about levels of Presidential approval.

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From July, 2002, through early March, 2003, Presidential approval was closer to the calculated Ipsos National CASH Index than it was to the number of Americans who said the country was headed in the right direction.
During this period, the average gap between Presidential approval and the Ipsos National CASH Index was 12.3 points; the gap between Presidential approval and direction of the country was 18.8 points.

When Economy Is Not A Primary Concern, Approval Tracks Direction Of The Country

At times when the national economy is not seen as one of the most important issues in the country, Presidential approval follows the general direction of the country.
From late March to early May (when Iraq was foremost on the minds of Americans), Presidential approval was much closer to direction of the country. The average gap between Presidential approval and direction of the country was 9.0 points; during the same period, the gap between Presidential approval and the Ipsos National CASH Index was 19.6 points.

Approval Moving back Toward Consumer Sentiment

Since the end of the shooting war in Iraq, Presidential approval has begun to shift back toward tracking consumer attitudes; the most recent Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Report and Ipsos National CASH Index find both Presidential approval and the National CASH Index increasing, while direction of the country fell.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos-Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

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