Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll: Swing Voters For 2004 Presidential Election Believe Iraq Was Worth Fighting, But Doubt Bush's Evidence About Weapons Of Mass Destruction And Doubt Bush's Economic Plan

Between July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,000 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,520 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is 177 2.2% for all adults, 177 2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C. -- In interviews with 1,520 registered voters conducted July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds the 2004 Presidential election taking shape as a key group of swing voters emerge. These swing voters:

• Believe that the war with Iraq was worth fighting;
• Believe the Bush Administration intentionally exaggerated its evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction; and,
• Are extremely negative about Bush's handling of the economy and other domestic issues.

Ipsos-Public Affairs, in the most recent Cook Political Report poll, conducted July 22-24, 2003, repeated two questions from an earlier ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. The questions were:

• Before the war began, do you think the Bush Administration did or did not intentionally exaggerate its evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, such as biological or chemical weapons?
• All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?

Based on the results, Ipsos-Public Affairs identified three key groups:

1. Those that believe the Bush Administration did NOT intentionally exaggerate evidence AND believe the war with Iraq was worth fighting;
2. Those that believe the Bush Administration DID intentionally exaggerate evidence BUT believe the war with Iraq was worth fighting; and,
3. Those that do NOT believe the war with Iraq was worth fighting.

The first group has an extremely positive assessment of Bush; the third group has an extremely negative assessment of Bush. The middle group strongly approves of Bush's foreign policy, but strongly disapproves of Bush's handling of the economy and other domestic issues. This key swing group in the electorate is predominantly:

• Moderate Democrats
• Residents of Southern states
• Male
• Individuals with no college experience
• Individuals in sales or skilled trade positions

These results demonstrate just how close the 2004 Presidential election could be. In the same survey, Ipsos-Public Affairs conducted a "perceptual mapping" analysis based on the open-end responses to the question of what people feel is the most important national problem. Consistently since Fall, 2001, the issue of political leadership has been associated with Independent voters. In the current survey, the issue of concerns about political leadership is more closely aligned with Democratic voters. This suggests that the nine Democratic presidential candidates have succeeded in raising the issue of political leadership among voters in their own party. For more information on this news release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos-Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300