With Less Than 24 Hours Before Election Day, Obama Maintains Lead - Among Likely Voters, Obama 53%, McCain 46%

Washington, DC - The final Ipsos/McClatchy poll of likely voters in the 2008 Presidential election campaign indicates that, with less than a day until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains his lead over John McCain - 53% for Obama/Biden, 46% for McCain/Palin and 1% for Nader/Gonzalez.

These figures among likely voters reflect an allocation of undecided voters to arrive at a final election estimate. Undecided voters were allocated using an 8-item summated issue index where a score of 8 indicates strong Obama leaners and a score of zero indicates strong McCain leaners.

With the undecided allocation, the gap between Obama and McCain (Obama 53%, McCain 46%; 7-point gap) remains basically the same as the last Ipsos/McClatchy poll of likely voters (Obama 48%, McCain 42%; 6-point gap).

Leadership Gains In Importance...

In the final Ipsos/McClatchy poll of the election campaign, leadership gained significantly in importance, moving from 17% of Americans rating it as one of the top two issues to 23%. This puts leadership on a par with national security (26%). And on the issue of leadership, Obama holds a slight edge, with 50% of likely voters rating Obama as stronger, compared to 46% rating McCain as stronger.

However, both leadership and national security continue to pale in comparison to jobs and the economy - the overriding issue of the campaign - rated as either the most important or second-most important issue by 62% of likely voters.

Campaign Largely Generates Excitement

A majority of likely voters (64%) report that, compared to other Presidential elections, the 2008 campaign has made them feel more excited and interested in voting. In comparison, only 27% report they feel more disgusted and discouraged from voting.

Obama Seen As Likely Winner...

Regardless of personal voting intention, two thirds of likely voters (65%) expect Barack Obama will be elected President on Tuesday, November 4th. Nearly one in three (28%) expect John McCain will win the election.

Presidential Debates Most Useful; Contact from Campaigns Least Useful...

Among different information sources used to help decide which presidential candidate to vote for, the presidential debates were the most useful for likely voters. Roughly eight in ten (78%) likely voters report the debates were very or somewhat useful. The debates were followed by television news coverage (73% useful) and newspaper coverage (54% useful).

Television advertisements were viewed as useful for four in ten likely voters (40%). The least useful information sources were personal contacts from the campaigns themselves. One third (34%) viewed personal contact from the Obama campaign as useful; 28% viewed contact from the McCain campaign as useful.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 30-November 2. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,008 adults aged 18 and older across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. Likely voters are defined as individuals currently registered to vote, who voted in the 2004 Presidential election, are a 7-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign `a great deal' or `quite a bit.' Individuals who did not vote in the 2004 Presidential election qualify as likely voters if they are registered to vote, are an 8-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign `a great deal' or `quite a bit.' Those individuals who have already cast their vote through early voting or an absentee ballot automatically qualify as likely voters. We interviewed 760 likely voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 1773.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.

For more information on this news release, please contact: Clifford Young, PhD Senior Vice President Ipsos Public Affairs (312) 375-3328 [email protected]

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