New research suggests that concerns about threats to democracy match the economy and immigration as issues shaping the 2024 election

Washington DC, March 1, 2024 — New Ipsos research finds that when presented with explicitly political options, two in five Americans say the main issue facing the country is the other side, a concept referred to as negative partisanship. This finding suggests that, for a significant portion of Americans, the election is more about achieving political victory than about a set of issue areas. Many conventional “main issue” survey questions appear to be missing this phenomenon which potentially explains strong Democratic performance in off-cycle elections, even as the public gives Democrats weak marks on the ‘typical’ main issues of the economy or immigration.

In this study, Ipsos experimented with three different sets of options in response to our standard “main issue” question. These options included Sample A/Standard/Standard which used our normal list of issues, Sample B/Democracy/Democracy which included a slightly condensed list of issues from Sample A/Standard and the item “political extremism and threats to democracy”, and Sample C/Political/Political which included a similar condensed list of issue and the items “Joe Biden and woke Democrats” and “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans.”

Detailed findings:

1. In Sample A/Standard, one in five Americans felt that immigration was the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 16% who report the economy and 7% who report the environment and climate. These results are largely in line with an earlier wave of this survey that asked the standard main issue question (19% of Americans chose the economy, 17% picked immigration, 8% the environment, and 8% crime or corruption).
2. Republicans (33%) in Sample A/Standard are more likely to say immigration is the main issue than Democrats (9%) or independents (19%). Many in Sample A/Standard, regardless of partisanship, feel the economy is a main issue (18% Republican, 15% independent, and 14% Democrat).
3. The issue landscape shifts significantly for Samples B and C, with explicitly political options rising in importance for Americans. In Sample B/Democracy, 24% choose political extremism as the most important problem facing the U.S., followed by immigration (20%), the economy (13%), war (6%), and crime (6%). In Sample C/Political, 23% say Donald Trump and MAGA republicans are the most important problem facing the U.S., with the economy (17%), Joe Biden and woke Democrats (13%), and immigration (10%) following in importance for Americans.
4. Instead, more Democrats and independents in Sample B/Democracy say political extremism or threats to democracy are the most important issues facing the nation (31% Democrats, 29% independents vs. 10% Republicans). The response to immigration also produces a large partisan divide, with 47% of Republicans in Sample B/Democracy saying it is the main issue facing the nation compared to 17% of independents and 5% of Democrats. The economy moves lower down the list of priorities in Sample B/Democracy, with 13% of Americans saying it is a main issue, breaking down to 15% of independents, 12% of Republicans, and 9% of Democrats.
5. Likewise, significant partisan gaps emerge in Sample C/Political too. About two in five Democrats (39%), one in four independents (25%), and 2% of Republicans say that Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans are the most important problems facing the U.S. today. Conversely, three in ten Republicans (29%), 13% of independents, and 1% of Democrats say Joe Biden and woke Democrats are the most important problems facing the country.
6. From there in Sample C/Political, immigration creates a pronounced partisan divide, with 24% of Republicans saying it is a main issue compared to 7% of both Democrats and independents agreeing. However, partisanship is not a statistically significant divider of whether the economy is a main issue for Americans in Sample C (21% of Republicans say it is, compared to 15% of Democrats and 14% of independents).
7. Relatedly, compared to Sample A, far fewer people in Samples B and C say ‘other’ when responding to what the most pressing problem facing the U.S. today is (13% in Sample A/Standard vs. 7% in Sample B/Democracy vs. 6% in Sample C/Political). 

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted February 9 to 11, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,017 adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 306 Democrats, 272 Republicans, and 341 Independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. One reminder emails was sent for this study.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.16. For Democrats, the margin of sampling error is plus or 6.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The design effect for Democrats is 1.15. For Republicans, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The design effect for Republicans is 1.13. For Independents, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The design effect for Independents is 1.12. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

This topline is trended with a previous Ipsos poll, labelled Wave 1, that was conducted February 2 to 4, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. The poll was based on a nationally representative probability sample of 681 adults age 18 or older. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.20.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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