Americans’ economic sentiment dips a bit lower

Washington, DC, May 19, 2022 – Americans’ economic sentiment continues to decline, as indicated by the Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker’ drop of 0.6 point from two weeks ago. Since a brief resurgence in consumer optimism in early April, sentiment has declined for a third consecutive reading and now sits at its lowest point since February 2021.

This week’s survey finds that purchasing confidence continues to decline for both big-ticket items and other household goods. As inflation continues to hit historic highs, majorities of Americans expect inflation, mortgage payments, monthly expenses, and taxes to continue to rise.

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Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.

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Detailed Findings

1. Scoring at 52.1, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence index has dropped by 0.6 points from two weeks ago.

• The Overall Confidence Index is currently 1.7 points below the pandemic average, and 8 points below where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1). The index now sits about one point lower than its 20-year historical average.

 

2. The Current and Investment sub-indices both show significant losses of 1.6 and 2.0 points, respectively vs. two weeks ago. Both indices are more than 10 points lower than pre-pandemic. The Current index sits more than 2 points lower than both its pandemic and 20-year historical average, while the Investment index is more than 4 points below these respective averages. The Expectations sub-index shows less volatility, falling only 0.6 point from two weeks ago, but it has now declined for the third consecutive two-week period.

 

3. The Jobs sub-index is the only one to post a gain, showing an uptick of 1.9-point from two weeks ago. While the index still sits around four points lower than it was pre-pandemic, it continues to remain relatively strong, exceeding both its pandemic and historical averages by about 6 points.

• The proportion of Americans who say they are more confident in their job security now compared to 6 months ago is at 52%, up 1 point from two weeks ago.
• The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 27%, down 3 points from two weeks ago.
• In addition, 39% say it’s at least somewhat likely that they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, unchanged from two weeks ago.

4. Most Americans continue to expect inflation to rise over the next year, along with mortgage interest rates, their monthly expenses, and their taxes. However, only one-quarter have the same expectation about their household income and their standard of living.

• Compared to earlier surveys asking the same questions, the most notable change is an increase in the percentage expecting the number of unemployed people to rise (by 6 points since four weeks ago and by 8 points since December 2021) to 40%. Paradoxically, the increased perception that unemployment is up nationally is not accompanied by any increase in concern about losing one’s job or any drop in the sentiment of personal job security. It may be a halo effect of increases of other indicators such as inflation and high interest rates.

 

5. Comfort with making major purchases relative to six months ago continues to decline as less than two in five are comfortable making both major and other household purchases.

• 37% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, down 2 points from two weeks ago.

• 39% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, down 4 points from two weeks ago.

 

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.

3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak

5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?

7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?

8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?

9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?

10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?

11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional question:

1. Over the next year, do you think each of the following will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

• The rate of inflation
• Mortgage interest rates
• The amount you pay on monthly bills and other regular expenses
• The taxes you pay
• The number of unemployed people in this country
• Your household income (e.g. wages, pensions, benefits, investment, etc.)
• The total amount of your debt (e.g., mortgage, home equity/ auto/ student/ pers. loans, credit card debt, etc.)
• Your own standard of living

About the Study                   

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted May 16-17, 2022 with a sample of 937 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect. For n=937, DEFF=1.5 and adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.4 percentage points.

Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index, and a Jobs Index. 

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420 2025

[email protected]

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