The Inside Track: 2022 Midterm Elections September Highlights
The Inside Track 2022: America the Uncertain webinar series will present in-depth analysis of the latest public opinion data on current trends and recent events influencing the political landscape. Read below for highlights and key insights from this month’s webinar.
What you need to know:
The economy and, in particular, inflation are the biggest worries for Americans right now.
- Overall, the issue landscape has been very stable month-over-month.
Americans are feeling the squeeze from inflation.
- Even as people are feeling fair confident in their job security, many don’t feel confident in their ability to afford everyday goods.
Republicans perform best on the main issue of the day.
- Democrats trail Republicans when it comes to the public’s perception of their performance on inflation, the economy, and jobs.
Ipsos estimates that the most likely outcome in the Senate and House is a divided Congress, with Republicans picking up seats in the House and potentially taking control of the Senate.
- Given Republican advantages with the economy and precedent in the midterms, Republicans have an edge on the fundamentals. But, Democrats' enthusiasm has been better than expected, which could mollify those effects to some extent.
Deep dive:
Inflation top concern
Inflation is the number one worry for Americans, something that hasn’t changed since last month, according to the trend from the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll. From there, the next tier of issues Americans are most concerned with are political extremism or polarization, and crime or gun violence.
Overall, the issue landscape is stable. COVID is the only issue registering significant change, with fewer people concerned about the virus now than they were last month.
Employment and cost of living delinked
The latest Ipsos-Forbes Advisor Consumer Confidence Tracker shows that consumer confidence is in a middling but stable position. That’s in part because while many people are feeling fairly comfortable with their job security, few feel comfortable making everyday household purchases.
People are about as confident making that category of household purchases as they were in March 2020 when unemployment was skyrocketing to 14%, the world was shutting down, and there were supply chain shortages. As inflation picked up and lingered in the second half of 2021, people’s confidence in being able to pay for their household dropped significantly, dragging down consumer confidence.
Republicans do better than Democrats on the economy and inflation
Right now, Republicans are outperforming Democrats on the issues of the day. Inflation and the economy are the top worries for Americans as people try to scrap by with higher costs.
The ability to speak to the day-to-day concerns people have matters. Democrats hold advantages in some areas, but these issues aren’t as pressing as inflation is for the public.
2022 midterm forecast
Given the current context, the most likely outcome for the 2022 midterms is Republicans gaining seats in the House and Senate. The midterms are a referendum on the party in power, and Democrats currently control the executive and Congress. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms, something working against Democrats.
Yet, at the same time, Democrats are demonstrating more enthusiasm than expected, and some state-level initiatives point to some momentum in reaction to the overturn of Roe vs. Wade. While this may help to soften Republican gains in the House or Senate, it likely will not be enough for Democrats to retain control of Congress.
