Post-election, many Americans are surprised by the outcome but trust the results

Washington DC, December 12, 2022 -- The post-election (and final) wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds that a plurality of Americans is surprised by the results of the midterms but that the results are largely trusted. Looking ahead to the 118^th Congress, a bipartisan majority of Americans believe curbing inflation should be prioritized. Secondary priorities, however, are more polarized with Democrats most wanting Congress to codify abortion rights and Republicans most wanting Congress to stop immigration at the southern border. 

The poll also explores partisan preferences for their party’s nominee in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats are more divided, with a plurality saying they don’t know, compared to Republicans who largely back DeSantis and Trump. 

1. Both parties—and their leaders—are viewed as largely unfavorable. Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, Democrats don’t have a strong frontrunner, while Republicans are coalescing around DeSantis and Trump.

• Half of Americans feel unfavorably towards the Democratic Party (50%) and the Republican party (53%).
• Similarly, the parties’ de facto leaders are unfavorable to a majority of Americans, although Joe Biden is slightly less unfavorable than Donald Trump (55% vs. 63%). This is in part due to a higher share of Republicans viewing Trump as unfavorable (27%) than Democrats viewing Biden as unfavorable (17%).
• Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats are split over who they would like to be the Democratic nominee between Joe Biden (16%), Kamala Harris (13%), and Pete Buttigieg (10%). However, a plurality (25%) say they don’t know who they want to win the nomination.
• Republicans, on the other hand, are more coalesced around Trump (30%) and DeSantis (36%), with slightly more saying they want DeSantis to be the party’s nominee in 2024 at this time.

2. Coming out of the midterms, many Republicans say they were surprised by the outcome but largely trust the results. More Republicans also say they are favorable of those overseeing elections compared to before the midterms.

• A plurality of Americans (44%) say they were surprised by the election results, including a majority of Republicans (57%).
• Nearly seven in ten say they trust the results of the midterms (69%), including most Republicans (65%).
• Nearly all those that voted in person say they felt safe casting their ballot (95%), and one in 10 (9%) report having to wait in long lines.
• Post-election, 54% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of those that oversee elections, up from 46% in October. Similarly—though to a lesser extent—Republican favorability towards election administrators improved, but not significantly, post-election compared to in October (65% vs. 60%).

3. Inflation remains the top worry for Americans and is what they most want Congress to prioritize.

• Inflation remains Americans’ top worry, as it has since this tracking study began in May.
• Inflation is also by the far the topic that Americans report seeing in the news most often.
• Finally, reducing inflation is what Americans most want Congress to prioritize. This is true regardless of party, with a majority of Democrats (53%), Republicans (65%), and Independents (55%) wanting Congress to get inflation under control.

4. While a bipartisan majority agree that they want Congress to prioritize curbing inflation, other priorities are driven more by partisanship.

• Next to curbing inflation, Democrats most want Congress to prioritize codifying federal abortion rights (45%).
• Republicans’ top priority for Congress—behind inflation—is stopping immigration at the southern border (47%).
• A plurality support student loan forgiveness up to $10,000 for those earning less than $125,000 per year (47%), though this is mostly led by Democrats (79%).
• A plurality of Americans (43%) oppose firing or removing significant numbers of federal workers, though a plurality of Republicans are in support (49%).
• American support for reducing funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is more split, with 36% in favor and 35% opposed. This largely breaks down along party lines, with 51% of Democrats in opposition and 58% of Republicans in support.
• A majority oppose reducing corporate tax rates (52%). This is somewhat split across party lines, with 71% of Democrats opposed and a plurality of Republicans in support (44%).

5. There are some policies besides inflation that garner bipartisan support.

• The public broadly supports pardoning prior federal convictions for marijuana possession (59%), including a bipartisan majority.
• A majority oppose reducing funding for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (79%). This includes about eight in ten Republicans and nearly nine in ten Democrats.

Washington, DC, October 27, 2022 -- The final FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll before the midterm election finds that Americans are essentially equally divided between Democrats, Republicans, and neither side. With less than a third saying Democrats have earned another 2 years controlling the government, and just over a quarter saying Republicans have made a good case for why they should have control, Americans as a whole are clearly disillusioned with the political offering. This comes as only about 1 in 5 Americans are following the midterm elections very closely.

Click the following to learn more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ipsos-preelection-survey-likely-voters/

Detailed Findings

1. The generic Congressional ballot remains closely divided, suggesting the 2022 midterms remain very close.

• Among likely voters, the vote is equally split at 41% a piece.
• Just under a third (31%) of Americans say the Democrats have earned another two years controlling the government. Forty six percent say they have not, and roughly a quarter (22%) say they don't know. 
• About as many (28%) say Republicans have made a good case for why they should have control.
  • Support and opposition for either party is less about tangible policies and more a feeling that “their policies take the country in the right/wrong direction”.
• Only 15% of Americans think they have many good options on the ballot in the midterm elections. An additional 44% say they have a few good options.

2. Most Americans are not following the midterm elections closely.

• Under a quarter (22%) say they are following the midterms very closely, another 32% say somewhat closely.
• Gen Z* (8% very closely), Millennials (12% very closely), and people who use social media as their primary news source (10% very closely) are among the groups with the least attention to the election.

3. Inflation remains the main worry for most Americans. However, for likely Democratic and Republican voters, other issues are paramount.

• Among Democratic likely voters, political extremism, abortion, crime and gun violence, and climate change are all top tier issues.
• Among Republican likely voters, government debt, immigration, crime and gun violence, and election security are top worries.

4. Just under a third of Americans think the news media has done a good job covering the 2022 midterm elections.

• Most Americans would like to see more descriptions of how policies would impact their communities, interviews with candidates, or summaries of candidate backgrounds and policy positions.
• Relatively few Americans are very interested in interviews with advocates or partisans, or analysis of the horse race coverage.

The final wave of the 538/Ipsos 2022 midterm program will come out after the election.

*Note: Gen Z has a low base size (N=74).

Washington, DC, September 29, 2022 -- The latest FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll explores Americans’ perceptions of climate change and immigration. The poll finds that Americans place both topics in a third tier of top concerns facing the country, trailing inflation, political polarization, and crime. Americans are divided on whether the government should prioritize climate change or immigration in the immediate future. This perception, however, varies widely depending on which side of the aisle someone is on — as do many of the findings.

On climate change, most Americans believe it is caused entirely or mostly by humans. Many Americans report already experiencing the impacts of climate change and would prefer an approach centered around mitigation efforts — that is, making changes today to reduce the worst impacts of climate change before they happen — rather than adaptation, meaning adjusting to climate change as it happens in order to minimize disruptions to daily life today. Americans from both sides of the aisle are misguided about whether the impact of climate change is felt equally, regardless of race or income (it is not).

Americans’ views on immigration vary widely depending on whether or not the focus is on legal or undocumented immigration. The vast majority of those that consider immigration to be a top concern facing the country feel that undocumented immigration is a larger issue than legal immigration. In turn, support for stricter regulations on undocumented immigration is higher than it is for restrictions on legal immigration.

Click the following to learn more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-republicans-climate-change-immigration-ipsos-poll/

Detailed Findings

1. Inflation remains the top concern facing the country, with climate change and immigration in a third tier. Americans (particularly partisans) are divided on whether the government should focus on climate change or immigration.

• Americans continue to rate inflation as the top concern facing the country. However, this is down slightly compared to last month (54% vs. 61%).
• Political extremism or polarization (34%) and crime (32%) are second tier concerns for Americans behind inflation (54%).
• Climate change (20%), immigration (19%), and government budget/debt (18%) form a third tier of top concerns for Americans.
• Americans are divided on whether politicians and the government should focus more on climate change (36%) or immigration (35%) in the immediate future, while 15% say neither and 12% don’t know.
• This largely breaks down by party, with 65% of Democrats saying the government should prioritize climate change and 65% of Republicans saying they would rather the government prioritize immigration. Independents are divided (34% say climate, 30% say immigration).

2. Most Americans believe humans are entirely or mostly causing climate change, with large differences based on party affiliation.

• Most Americans believe that climate change is entirely caused by humans (16%) or mostly caused by humans (47%).
• Democrats are 2.5 times more likely than Republicans to believe humans are entirely or mostly causing climate change (88% vs. 35%). Independents are in the middle (65%).
• Instead, a plurality of Republicans say climate change is barely caused by humans (38%).

3. Many Americans report already experiencing the impacts of climate change. However, a majority (regardless of party) fail to recognize the disproportionate impact climate change has on Americans based on their race or income.

• Most Americans believe that climate change is currently affecting both the weather worldwide (70%) and near them (60%).
• In fact, 55% say they have experienced an extreme weather event in the past 5 years and 56% are worried about the impact climate change will have on them personally.
• Far fewer Republicans are worried about the impact climate change poses for them than Democrats (31% vs. 81%). Independents fall roughly in the middle (56%).
• A majority of Americans (54%) correctly believe that hurricanes will become more intense and stronger because of climate change. However, just 30% of Republicans believe this is true.
• A similar share (58%) incorrectly believe that climate change impacts all Americans equally, regardless of race or income. This is true regardless of party affiliation.

4. Americans prefer a mitigation approach to climate change over one that focuses on adaptation, though this varies among partisans.

• When forced to choose, Americans believe making changes today to reduce the worst impacts of climate change before they happen is a better path forward than adjusting to climate change as it happens in order to minimize disruptions to daily life today (66% vs. 29%). However, a majority of Republicans prefer the latter (57%).
• A plurality of Americans (45%) support passing stricter regulations related to climate change, and 64% believe the U.S. should fund research to help reduce the effects of climate change.
• Of the policies asked about, a bipartisan majority support increased emphasis on developing alternative energy sources and tax credits for corporations that reduce carbon emissions.
• Regardless of party affiliation, roughly four in 10 Americans are familiar with the Inflation Reduction Act.

5. For Americans who rate immigration as a top issue facing the country, the vast majority believe undocumented immigration is a larger issue than legal immigration. However, a plurality of Americans say they do not know that most immigrants to the U.S. are in the country legally.

• The vast majority of those that consider immigration a top concern facing the country feel that undocumented immigration is a larger issue than legal immigration (95% vs. 2%).
• When asked whether most immigrants to the U.S. are in the country legally (which is true), a plurality (39%) of Americans said they did not know, while 31% say it is false and 28% say it’s true.
• Republicans are especially likely to incorrectly believe the statement “most immigrants to the U.S. are in the country legally” is false (46%).

6. Support for stricter regulations on undocumented immigration is higher than it is for restrictions on legal immigration. Again, partisanship plays a major role in immigration policy preferences.

 

Washington, DC, August 10, 2022 -- The latest FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds crime or gun violence remains among Americans’ top concerns, albeit distantly behind inflation for most, and that a majority believe gun violence is a larger issue than crime. At the same time, just over six in 10 Americans believe it is more important to control gun violence than protect gun rights, and that the U.S. should have stricter restrictions on gun ownership. In fact, a number of possible restrictions garner bipartisan support.

Two and a half months after the mass shooting at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, TX, the poll also explores perceptions of what could make schools safer and the share of Americans that have experienced lock down drills to prepare for an active shooter during their K-12 education.

 

Click the following to learn more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-and-republicans-think-differently-about-crime-and-gun-violence/ 

Detailed Findings

1. Crime or gun violence continues to rank among Americans’ top concerns. When forced to choose, more are concerned about gun violence than crime, though this differs based on party affiliation.

• Inflation remains the top concern facing the country (61%), followed by crime or gun violence (33%) and political extremism or polarization (31%).
• Among Democrats, inflation (50%) and crime or gun violence (44%) are nearly equally important, whereas Republicans are far more likely to cite inflation (79%) as more important to address than crime or gun violence (26%).
• When forced to choose, 55% of Americans say gun violence is a larger issue, compared to just 35% that say crime.
• This varies drastically along party lines; 79% of Democrats indicate gun violence is a larger issue while 64% of Republicans believe crime is a larger issue. Independents are more likely to believe gun violence (56%) is a larger issue than crime (29%).
• Roughly one in six Americans (16%) report that they or someone in their immediate family have been the victim of gun violence in the past.

2. Across a series of true or false statements, Americans demonstrate relatively low knowledge of crime and gun violence statistics.

• A narrow majority of Americans (51%), including Republicans (56%) and Democrats (51%) alike, correctly recognize that the rate of violent crime increased in 2020. However, a similar share of Americans (49%) incorrectly believes 2020 had a higher rate of violent crimes than 1991.
• Just over four in 10 (45%) correctly indicate that crime rates are higher in urban than rural areas after controlling for population size. However, a similar share (42%) incorrectly believe gun death rates are higher in urban areas than in rural areas after controlling for population size.
• Nearly seven in 10 (69%) correctly indicate that gun death rates are increasing and 60% correctly say the U.S. has the highest gun deaths per capita among all developed countries. Just 19%, however, correctly identify that most deaths from guns are suicides.

3. In general, Republicans do not favor stricter gun laws. However, many potential initiatives garner majority support across both sides of the aisle (and among independents).

• Americans believe controlling gun violence (63%) is more important than protecting gun rights. This breaks down by party identification, with far more Republicans (63%) believing it is more important to protect gun rights than Democrats (7%).
• Roughly six in 10 (61%) Americans believe the U.S. should pass gun laws that are stricter than they are today. Just 9% believe the U.S. should have less strict gun laws. Democrats overwhelmingly prefer stricter laws (87%) than Republicans (35%).
• A majority of Americans —including Republicans — support a number of restrictions to gun ownership, including universal background checks (83%), mandatory safety training (83%), mental health evaluations (78%), higher minimum age (74%), and proof of proper storage (68%).
• Fewer than half (41%) believe stricter gun restrictions would lead to fewer mass shootings.

4. A narrow majority of Americans believe an increased police presence at schools would make them safer. However, few believe arming teachers would make schools safer.

• A majority of Americans (55%) believe that schools would be safer if there were more police stationed there, including 72% of Republicans, 49% of independents, and 47% of Democrats.
• By comparison, far fewer (25%) believe schools would be safer if teachers had guns, including 44% of Republicans, 23% of independents, and 9% of Democrats.
• One-fifth of Americans report having gone through a lockdown drill during their K-12 education, with large differences by generation.
• Roughly half (51%) of parents of children under 18 report that their child has gone through lockdown drills to prepare for an active shooter at their school.

 

Washington, DC, July 12, 2022 -- In the wake of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and a federal right to abortion, the latest FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll finds that the majority of Americans continue to support legal access to abortion. However, the survey data shows that American attitudes towards abortion are complicated and, for most, not a clear “legal” or “illegal” decision. The study also shows supermajority support for contraception with the American public.

While one in eight say they are personally worried about abortion, and only one in five say that it is one of the most important issues facing the country, Democrats still appear to have made some slight gains in standings towards the midterms. Currently Democrats and Republicans are tied with the American public, an improvement for Democrats from the last few months where they have consistently trailed Republicans. It remains to be seen if these gains hold through the election.

Click the following to learn more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/abortion-birth-control-poll/

Detailed Findings

1. The majority of Americans feel abortion should be legal, and a supermajority support legal access to birth control.

• A small majority say surgical abortions (55%) and medical abortions or abortion pills (59%) should be legal in most or all cases.
• Supermajorities support mostly or completely legal access to birth control pills (89%), emergency contraception like Plan B (71%), IUDs (81%), or condoms (90%).
• When asked about “surgical abortions”, a majority of Americans (55%) say they should be mostly or always legal. Adding in the 23% who say “mostly illegal”, 78% of Americans believe surgical abortions should be legal in at least some circumstances. However, only a quarter (26%) say surgical abortions should be legal in all cases, showing a majority (52%) of Americans fall in the “mostly” legal or illegal camp indicating support for at least some restrictions.

2. Americans are broadly opposed to measures making it illegal to obtain or assist with obtaining an abortion. But they are ambivalent on policies that might make it easier to access abortion services.

• Large majorities oppose “making it illegal for women to cross state lines to obtain an abortion in a state where it is still legal” (78% oppose), “allowing ordinary citizens to sue anyone who performs, aids, or attempts to aid in an abortion” (78% oppose), or “making it illegal to provide assistance for a woman to get an abortion, like providing money or transportation” (76% oppose).
• However, public support is tepid for employer measures to help women access abortion. Just half support “employers or insurance companies paying for women to travel across state lines for abortion services” (50% support) or “requiring health insurance companies to cover abortion services” (54% support).

3. Many Americans are unclear on facts about abortion.

• A majority of Americans do not know that most women who receive abortions are adults out of their teen years, that abortions are less dangerous than carrying a child to term, or that the number of abortions in America has declined over the last decade.

 4. The top worries for most Americans continue to be inflation (60%), crime or gun violence (27%), and political extremism or polarization (30%). Only about one in eight Americans (13%) say abortion is a top personal worry.

• Concern with inflation and political extremism is up slightly (+5 points and +4 points, respectively) from June while concern with crime or gun violence is down 11 percentage points.
• Most Americans report hearing about inflation (71%), crime or gun violence (71%), and abortion (69%) as the topics dominating news coverage over the last month.

 5. Democrats and Republicans are tied on the generic congressional ballot, an improvement for Democrats from a month ago.

• Currently, Democrats and Republicans are tied at 29% each among all Americans, this is up 2 percentage points for Democrats from June (Republicans have stayed flat).
• Among those saying they are almost certain to vote, the race is at 39% for Dems and 38% for Republicans, a small swing from the 38% D / 40% R race among certain voters in June.

 6. Perceptions of political figures – including the Supreme Court – are decidedly unfavorable.

• Currently, just over a third of Americans (39%) say they at least lean favorable towards the Supreme Court. Half of Americans (49%) are unfavorable.

Washington, DC, June 14, 2022 -- The second release this month for the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking survey dives into what Americans know about partisanship, what they think drives political polarization, and their ability to predict what people think on the other side of the aisle.

Additionally, following a series of high-profile mass shootings, the second wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking survey finds gun violence and crime is now the second most important issue to Americans personally. While inflation still ranks as the main issue, gun violence and crime increased significantly as a problem for the public over the past month. Growing concern among Democrats largely drives this month-over-month change, despite decisive majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all frequently seeing news about gun violence and crime. Conversely, few see abortion as a main issue.

Click the following to read more: 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/3-in-10-americans-named-political-polarization-as-a-top-issue-facing-the-country/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/over-40-percent-of-americans-now-rate-gun-violence-as-a-top-issue/

Detailed Findings

1. Gun violence and crime now rank as the second most important issue for Americans.

• Nearly two-thirds (64%) feel that polarization is driven by political and social elites, with majorities of Republicans (75%) and Democrats (63%) feeling this way.
• When asked whether statements said by different political elites were extreme, partisan responses mostly fell along predictable lines.
  • For example, 66% of Democrats felt that the following statement was extreme: “Wokeness is a problem, and everyone knows it. It’s hard to talk to anybody today who doesn’t say this. But they don’t want to say it out loud.” By comparison, only 38% of Republicans felt the statement was extreme.
• To that end, most feel that politicians and political leaders have had an impact on driving political division, with supermajorities of all Americans (84%), Democrats (86%), and Republicans (89%) feeling this way. Wealthy political donors (79%), social media companies (79%), and mainstream media and news (78%) are all also viewed as drivers of political division by most Americans.
• Though, most feel the United States should actively try to reduce political polarization, with similar shares of Republicans (66%) and Democrats (70%) feeling this should happen.

2. Partisans were reasonably good at predicting what people in the opposing party believed.

• For example, 29% of Republicans agree that middle and high schools should teach about race and racism in the U.S. On average, Democrats guessed that 19% of Republicans believed this.
• Similarly, Republicans, on average, estimated that 21% of Democrats agree that there is widespread election fraud in U.S. elections. When asked in the survey, 13% of Democrats actually held this belief.
• The one place where people couldn’t predict partisan viewpoints was on abortion. When asked how many Republicans believe abortion should be legal in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother, on average, Democrats felt that only 30% of Republicans agree with that statement. In actuality, a majority of Republicans (64%) believe this.
  • Republicans also underestimated how many Democrats support abortion under these conditions, with 89% of Democrats supporting this while, on average, Republicans estimated that 68% of Democrats hold this view.

3. Gun violence and crime now rank as the second most important issue for Americans.

• Two in five Americans (38%) feel gun violence and crime is the most important issue to them personally, moving 18 points from when the question was last asked in May (20%). Notably, inflation is still the top issue overall for Americans, with over half (55%) citing this as a personal problem for them.
• While this is true, more Americans now report consuming news about crime and gun violence (76%) than inflation (66%). This also represents a substantial increase news consumption about crime and gun violence, as only half of Americans (50%) had seen crime and gun violence frequently on the news in early May.

4. Crime and gun violence has grown more as an issue for Democrats than Republicans or independents.

• Last month, 29% of Democrats felt crime and gun violence was an issue that was personally worrying to them. Now, almost double the amount of Democrats feel the same, with half of Democrats (50%) citing crime and gun violence as a main worry.
• For comparison, 27% of Republicans and 37% of independents feel crime and gun violence is a major worry for them. Last month, 17% of Republicans and independents felt the same.
• Despite the wide gap between Democrats and Republicans on crime and gun violence, majorities of Democrats (85%), Republicans (72%), and independents (72%) have seen crime and gun violence a lot in the news.

5. Despite the breaking news surrounding abortion in the past month, Americans still do not view it as a major issue.

• In May, a leak from the Supreme Court indicated the Supreme Court’s willingness to overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade case, which guarantees abortion as a constitutional right.
• Yet, only one in ten Americans rank abortion as a main issue overall, moving only 5 points month-over-month.
• Few Democrats (12% personally vs. 13% for the country), Republicans (11% vs. 8%), or independents (8% vs. 8%) rank abortion as a main issue for them personally or for the country.
• Though, more than twice the number of Americans had frequently seen news about abortion (23% in May vs. 53% in June), making it the third most seen topic following inflation and gun violence and crime.
• A bare majority of Democrats (56%), Republicans (54%), and independents (50%) report frequently seeing news about abortion in the past month.

Washington, DC, June 9, 2022 -- Following a series of high-profile mass shootings, the second wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking survey finds gun violence and crime is now the second most important issue to Americans personally. Inflation still ranks higher than gun violence as the main issue. But, over the past month, gun violence and crime increased significantly as a problem for the public. Growing concern among Democrats largely drives this month-over-month change, despite decisive majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all frequently seeing news about gun violence and crime. Conversely, few see abortion as a main issue.

Click here to read more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/over-40-percent-of-americans-now-rate-gun-violence-as-a-top-issue/

Detailed Findings

1. Gun violence and crime now rank as the second most important issue for Americans.

• Two in five Americans (38%) feel gun violence and crime is the most important issue to them personally, moving 18 points from when the question was last asked in May (20%). Notably, inflation is still the top issue overall for Americans, with over half (55%) citing this as a personal problem for them.
• While this is true, more Americans now report consuming news about crime and gun violence (76%) than inflation (66%).
• Overall, compared to last month, more Americans report seeing news related to crime and gun violence. Half of Americans (50%) had seen crime and gun violence frequently on the news in early May. Now three in four Americans (76%) report the same.

2. Crime and gun violence has grown more as an issue for Democrats than Republicans or independents.

• Last month, 29% of Democrats felt crime and gun violence was an issue that was personally worrying to them. Now, almost double the amount of Democrats feel the same, with half of Democrats (50%) citing crime and gun violence as a main worry.
• For comparison, 27% of Republicans and 37% of independents feel crime and gun violence is a major worry for them. Last month, 17% of Republicans and independents felt the same. 
• Despite the wide gap between Democrats and Republicans on crime and gun violence, majorities of Democrats (85%), Republicans (72%), and independents (72%) have seen crime and gun violence a lot in the news. 

3. Despite the breaking news surrounding abortion in the past month, only 10% of Americans feel it is a main issue, a 5-point difference from May. 

• In May, a leak from the Supreme Court indicated the Supreme Court’s willingness to overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade case, which guarantees abortion as a constitutional right. 
• Yet, only one in ten Americans rank abortion as the main issue overall, moving only 5 points month-over-month. 
• Few Democrats (12% personally vs. 13% for the country), Republicans (11% vs. 8%), or independents (8% vs. 8%) rank abortion as a main issue for them personally or for the country. 
• Though, twice the number of Americans had frequently seen news about abortion (23% in May vs. 53% in June), making it the third most seen topic following inflation and gun violence and crime.
• A bare majority of Democrats (56%), Republicans (54%), and independents (50%) report frequently seeing news about abortion in the past month.

Washington, DC, May 17, 2022 -- The first of seven polls that will comprise the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos 2022 Election Tracking Survey finds that inflation is the top concern for American adults. Many report facing negative financial impacts due to rising prices, and in turn, say they have had to make major changes to how they live their life. The poll also explores perceived causes of rising prices and whether the public and private sector should prioritize keeping prices low or employment high.

Click the following to learn more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-asked-2000-americans-about-their-biggest-concern-the-resounding-answer-inflation/

Detailed Findings

1. Inflation is the top concern for Americans, regardless of their political affiliation.

• Americans rate inflation as both the top concern for them personally (51%) and the country at large (52%). This is true across Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
• Political extremism or polarization is consistently a second tier issue, though other second tier issues vary by party identification. Democrats are more concerned about crime or gun violence and climate change, and Republicans are more concerned about immigration, the government budget/debt, and election fraud.
• Largely, respondents say that the issues that most impact the country and the issues that personally impact them most are in line.
  • More say immigration (20% vs. 14%), the government budget (18% vs. 13%), and COVID-19 (15% vs. 11%) is a concern for country than themselves.
  • More Republicans say immigration is an important issue for the country than something that worries them personally (35% vs. 25%).

2. Inflation is a salient issue that many Americans report is impacting their financial situation and life choices. That said, misconceptions exist.

• Nearly two in three Americans report having seen inflation in the news over the past month.
• A majority (55%) think that gas prices have seen the largest increase in price over the past year when compared to food (37%), electricity (2%), and clothing (<1%).
• Across a series of true or false questions, many have misconceptions about inflation. For example, a majority (51%) incorrectly believe inflation is at its highest point since World War II, and a plurality (43%) incorrectly believe American gas prices are among the highest in the world.
• A narrow majority (52%) say their financial situation is about the same today as it was a year ago. Another 32% say it’s worse, while just 12% say it’s better.
• Many (41%) say they have made major changes to their life because of cost increases.

3. The largest share of Americans — across the political spectrum — blame supply chain breakdowns for rising prices. However, differences exist by party.

• Supply chain breakdowns (78%) are most believed to have had the largest impact on price increases over the past year, followed by COVID-19 (70%).
• Democrats are more likely than Republicans and independents to cite businesses trying to make profits, uncompetitive industries, COVID-19, and conflicts in other countries as driving prices up. Meanwhile, Republicans are more likely to blame the government’s spending on COVID, the Federal Reserve’s policies, and workers’ rising wages.

• Americans are somewhat torn over whether the President and Congress should prioritize keeping prices low or keeping people employed — with slightly more preferring they prioritize keeping prices low.
  • Republicans are more likely than Democrats to think President Biden and Congress should prioritize keeping prices low than people employed.
• A majority, however, believe the Fed (56%) should prioritize keeping prices low and businesses (54%) should prioritize keeping people employed.

4. Roughly four in ten American adults say they are certain or almost certain to vote in the midterms. Among this group, slightly more indicate they plan to vote for a Republican than a Democrat.

• Four in ten (42%) say they are certain or almost certain to vote while 20% say they are very likely.
• Another 11% say they are not likely to vote, 9% indicate they are not registered, and 8% say they don’t know yet.
• Among those who self-report they are certain to vote, 40% intend to vote for a Republican candidate while 35% intend to vote for a Democratic candidate.
• Americans’ favorability of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is the same (34% each).

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted October 13-23, 2022, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,540 adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 444 Democrats, 431 Republicans, and 665 independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

This survey was conducted in English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and 2020 vote. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2021 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The 2020 vote benchmark comes from the Federal Election Commission's Official 2020 Presidential General Election Results.

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• 2020 Vote (Biden, Trump, Did not vote)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.55. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll.  In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

Please note, the methodology section of the topline for Wave(s) 1-3 were updated alongside the Wave 4 release to reflect the weighting scheme and benchmarks used.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com