Global Consumer Confidence Index Holds Steady
Washington, DC - In the inaugural month of 2018, the global Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index holds steady at 50.1. The Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments fielded monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews of adults aged 18-64 in the United States, Canada, and Israel and adults aged 16-64 in the index’s 21 other countries monthly since January 2010.
Continuing to lead in overall Consumer Confidence are: China (70.4), India (64.7), Sweden (63.0), and the U.S. (61.1). Of these countries, India is the only one to see a significant change over the last three months with an index decrease of -1.5 points. Italy (37.8) remains the country with the lowest Consumer Confidence Index score, followed by Turkey (39.4) and Russia (39.9).
Related to the Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index are three sub-indices: the Ipsos Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Ipsos Expectations Index reflecting economic expectations, and the Ipsos Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the country’s investment climate.
January 2018’s global Ipsos Jobs Index (57.4) remains nearly unchanged with a three-month increase of just 0.2 points, but is up 2.5 points from this time last year. The U.S. (71.4) experienced the largest Jobs Index gain over the last three months with an increase of 3.5 points. Once again, Turkey’s Jobs Index score (43.3) shows the steepest three-month drop (-3.2 points). The U.S. and Sweden (both at 71.4) have overtaken China (70.4) as the Job Index’s top scoring countries. Brazil (34.0), despite seeing a significant increase over the last three months (+2.9), continues to record the lowest Jobs Index score among the 24 countries surveyed.
The global Ipsos Expectations Index has also remained even over the last three months, holding at 58.5. The two countries with a score above 70 have seen only minimal changes over the past three months: a 1.0-point increase for China and a 1.0-point decrease for India. Turkey (46.5) is now the sole country with an Expectations Index score below 50 as South Africa saw a significant increase of 3.2 points jumping to 52.0.
The global Ipsos Investment Index increased by 0.4 points to 44.2, led by China (69.0), India (66.1), and Sweden (59.7). Among the Investment Index’s top scorers, only India experienced a significant decrease (-2.9 points) over the previous three months – a recurring pattern. Belgium (43.3), conversely, experienced consecutive months of increases of 5 points or more. Italy (28.4), Japan (29.3), and Russia (32.2) represented the index’s low scores for the month.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please click here.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Nicolas Boyon
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 212.293.6544
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.
