Washington, DC - Today, Ipsos released new election data in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, showing that the Senate and Gubernatorial Races in Florida are still competitive, though Democrats have a slight advantage in both. Democrat Andrew Gillum (50%) is slightly ahead of Republican Ron DeSantis (44%) in the gubernatorial race, and Democrat Bill Nelson (49%) is also ahead of Republican Rick Scott in the Senate race. This is a significant change from when we polled in September, when Scott (46%) and Nelson (45%) were neck and neck among likely voters. Today, the gap has widened to 5-points in favor of Nelson (49%). A win in both races will likely come down to whichever side is more mobilized to show up to vote.
Less than half (45%) of likely voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President, and voters are still citing healthcare (16%) and immigration (15%) as the top issues in determining the vote. On healthcare, 43% of likely voters feel that Bill Nelson has the better policy while 35% feel that Rick Scott does. On immigration, the numbers are closer, with 40% preferring Scott’s policy vs. 38% who prefer Nelson’s. Similarly, among the candidates for Governor, 46% believe that Gillum has a better policy on healthcare vs. 35% who prefer DeSantis’ policy. On immigration, likely voters are split equally between Gillum and DeSantis’ policies (40% each).
For more information on Florida and other races, please reference the Political Atlas, an interactive website collaboration between Ipsos and the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The Political Atlas site provides daily updates of the main issues affecting citizens in all 50 states, along with poll and social media indicators for every congressional, senate, and gubernatorial race in the country, with expert assessments. Bringing this to the midterm election provides further resolution to the ebbs and flows of the campaigns. Ipsos uses machine learning and natural language processing algorithms to collect and categorize over 5 million individual posts a day.
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