Final Political Atlas 2018 Midterm Election Update

Voter turnout likely to determine tossup races

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC - Ipsos in partnership with the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Reuters are excited to announce the final polling update on Political Atlas before the midterm elections. Additionally, the Center for Politics’ race rankings have been updated on the site, as well as the regular daily social media updates.

We find that many Governor’s races are extremely close, including Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Kansas. In these and other tight races, voter enthusiasm and turnout will likely be the key factor in determining the electoral outcome. Due to the demographic makeup of the voting public, as we move to smaller populations we get a voting population that is – generally speaking - more hospitable to Republicans. For that reason, we often see Republicans do better in polls of likely voters than in polls of registered voters or all adults. How this actually plays out on November 6th will largely be determined by Democratic voter enthusiasm and whether it’s high enough to increase turnout to make this a more favorable environment for Democrats than past midterm elections.

All our polls can be found on our website at For more in-depth information on all the races this electoral cycle, please reference the Political Atlas, an interactive website collaboration between Ipsos and the University of Virginia Center for Politics. 

Political Atlas is a multidisciplinary approach to election forecasting for the 2018 midterm elections. This free tool provides daily updates of the main issues affecting citizens in all 50 states, along with poll and social media analytics, and expert assessments. The incorporation of social media is a function Ipsos has increasingly used in its international polling in Mexico, Brazil, and Canada. Bringing this to the midterms provides further resolution to the ebbs and flows of the campaigns. Ipsos uses machine learning and natural language processing algorithms to collect and categorize over 5 million individual posts a day. 

For more information on this press release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs

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