Washington, DC - This month’s global Consumer Confidence National Index matched October’s all-time high remaining at 50.5. The National Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments fielded monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews of adults aged 18-64 in the United States, Canada, and Israel and adults aged 16-64 in the index’s 21 other countries monthly since January 2010.
Overall, ten countries experienced significant 3-month increases (≥+1.5 percentage points) in their National Index scores with Argentina (+8.3), Russia (+3.6), and China (+3.4) recording the largest gains. Conversely, Turkey (-2.2), South Korea (-2.1), and India (-1.6) saw significant 3-month decreases (≥-1.5 percentage points).
China (70.4), India (64.5), Sweden (63.2), and the U.S. (60.4) were once again atop the National Index with both China (+3.4) and India (-1.6) experiencing significant changes in opposite directions. Italy (38.0) remained the low scorer among the index’s countries and was one of two countries, along with South Africa (39.5), to record a score below 40.
Below the primary National Index are three sub-indices including the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Expectations Index reflecting economic expectations, and the Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the country’s investment climate.
November’s 2017 global Jobs Index score showed a 3-month increase of 0.7 with significant increases recorded in seven countries with the largest gains experienced in Argentina (+6.0), Russia (+5.5), and Belgium (+3.2). Sweden (-5.0) and Turkey (-1.5) were the only two countries to experience significant decreases. Overall, China (70.7) replaced Germany (70.4) atop the index with both being followed closely by the U.S. (69.5) and Sweden (68.0). Brazil (31.4) once again served as an outlier being the only country to fall below an index score of 45.
The global Expectations Index score experienced a 3-month increase of 0.7 this month and, like October, holds even at 58.5. Nine countries experienced significant increases in their scores including Argentina (+5.2), Saudi Arabia (+3.6), Italy (+2.7), Poland (+2.7), Russia (+2.6), Japan (+2.2), Australia (+1.8), China (+1.6), and Hungary (+1.5). South Korea (-4.4), Turkey (-3.4), and India (-1.9) were conversely the only three countries to experience significant decreases. China’s significant increase matched with India’s significant decrease left the latter atop the index after the two were tied for the highest marks in October.
Lastly, the global Investment Index again experienced back-to-back 3-month increases of 1.7 points ticking up to 44.0. Eleven countries recorded significant increases with the largest gains witnessed in Argentina (+10.9), China (+5.4), Mexico (+4.1), and Sweden (+4.1). Three countries significantly decreased including Turkey (-2.4), South Korea (-2.0), and India (-1.6). China (69.0) replaced India (66.4) atop the index after both experienced a significant increase and decrease, respectively. Italy (28.2) and Japan (29.5) again marked the index’s lowest scores although with Japan experiencing a significant 3-month improvement of +3.4.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please click here.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
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