Washington, DC - Setting an all-time high, this month’s global Consumer Confidence National Index has risen to 50.5. The National Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments fielded monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews monthly since January 2010.
Overall, ten countries experienced significant 3-month increases (≥+1.5 percentage points) in their National Index scores with Argentina (+6.4), Mexico (+5.2), and Australia (+3.2) recording the largest gains. Conversely, France (-2.3) and Saudi Arabia (-1.7) saw the largest decreases.
China (69.6), India (66.2), Sweden (62.7), and the U.S. (60.2) were once again atop the National Index with China (+2.5) being the only to experience any significant change. Italy (37.9) remained the low scorer among the index’s countries and the country to record a score below 40.
Related to the primary National Index are three sub-indices including the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Expectations Index reflecting economic expectations, and the Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the country’s investment climate.
October’s 2017 global Jobs Index score shows a 3-month increase of 0.9 with significant increases recorded in eleven countries and the largest gains experienced in Argentina (+4.9), Belgium (+4.4), and Mexico (+3.7). Only three countries experienced significant decreases including Sweden (-3.5), France (-2.9), and the U.S. (-2.1). Overall, Germany (71.5) again measured the highest score followed closely by China (70.5) and Sweden (69.7). Brazil, similarly, was once again the only country to fall below 45 with a score of 31.1.
The global Expectations Index score experienced a 3-month increase of 0.8 this month after falling in September and now stands at 58.5. Seven countries experienced significant increases in their scores including Argentina (+4.7), Mexico (+2.9), South Africa (+2.7), Hungary (+2.3), Poland (+2.2), Italy (+1.8), and Australia (+1.5). Among the countries in the index, France (-2.1) was the only nation to experience a significant decrease in their score. China (72.3) and India (72.3) continued atop the index while Turkey (49.0) and South Africa (48.8) remained at its bottom.
Finally, the global Investment Index experienced a 3-month increase of 1.7 points ticking up to 43.8. Eleven countries record significant increases with the largest gains seen in Argentina (+7.7), Mexico (+7.0), and Australia (+5.5). Three countries significantly decreased including France (-2.5), Saudi Arabia (-2.5), and the U.S. (-1.5). India (68.9), China (67.8), and Sweden (59.5) again recorded the highest scores. Conversely, Italy (28.2) and Japan (28.8) reported the lowest scores.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please go to www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5836.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
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