Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index Hits New Record High of 49.3
Washington, DC - Breaking last month’s record high, the global consumer confidence Primary Index has risen to 49.3. This is the highest score since Ipsos started tracking in 2010 and a slight uptick from August’s score of 48.9. The Primary Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments, as measured monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews monthly since January 2010.
Five countries saw a significant increase in their Primary Index score, with Canada, Mexico, Poland, South Korea, and Turkey each rising by at least 1.5 points or more. The most significant changes were seen in Turkey (+4.1), South Korea (+3.9), and Mexico (+3.4). Similar to August, Saudi Arabia again experienced a noticeable decrease dropping by 3.1 points. Great Britain (-1.7) and the US (-1.6) also saw significant decreases in their Primary Index scores.
There was little change among the highest scoring countries in the Primary Index where China (68.3), India (66.7), Sweden (62.5) and the US (60.3) again scored the best marks among the 24 countries included in the index. The countries with the lowest scores also remained unchanged with Brazil (39.3), Italy (37.4), and South Africa (39.9) all scoring below 40.
Two of the subsets of the Primary Index, the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security and the Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the investment climate, are both up globally.
At a record-high of 56.9, July 2017’s global Jobs Index score shows a three-month increase of 0.5 points with gains of 1.5 points or more in seven countries. The largest gains were seen in Turkey (+4.8) and South Korea (+3.0). India (-1.8), China (-1.7), France (-1.6) and Saudi Arabia (-1.5) were countries that showed notable losses. Overall, Germany (71.9) leads the pack followed closely by Sweden (71.6) and the US (69.1). Brazil was the only country to fall below 45, garnering only 30.
The global Expectations Index score was the only subset to fall, though only by -0.1, now at 58.0. Five countries showed a gain of 1.5 points or more: Turkey (+3.6), South Korea (+3.5), South Africa (+2.2), Mexico (+1.9), and Poland (+1.6). Another four countries recorded decreases of 1.5 points or more, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most significant drop (-4.8). India (72.4) and China (72.2) again report the highest Expectations scores, while France (49.9), Italy (48.8) and South Africa (48.4) report the lowest.
The global Investment Index shows a 3-month gain of 0.5 point, now up to 42.9. Seven countries record gains of 1.5 points or more with the largest ones in Mexico (+4.5), Turkey (+4.0) and South Korea (+4.0). Despite the overall increase in the global Investment Index, four countries dropped in the September Index. Saudi Arabia reported the most significant decrease of 3.4 points. India (69.0), China (66.1), and Sweden (58.1) are the highest scoring countries again. Six countries reported scores under 35, with Japan (26.7) and Italy (27.9) reporting the lowest Investment Index scores.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please go to www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5836.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Nicolas Boyon
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 212.293.6544
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.
