Washington, DC, December 11, 2019 -In support of this week's Cliff's Take, we conducted a poll focusing on impeachment, its definition, and the importance of question order. We found that when Americans are first shown questions regarding impeachment in general (in the form of "true/false" battery and a simple "good thing"/"bad thing" question), they are more divided on whether President Trump should or should not be impeached. Additionally, it reveals that most Americans do not have a clear grasp on the definition of impeachment.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between November 26-27, 2019. For this survey, a sample of roughly 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample was split, resulting in two samples: 502 and 503 adults. The first sample of 502 adults contains 191 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 55 Independents. The second sample of 503 adults contains 191 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 67 Independents. The remaining adults did not select a political party affiliation.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents, plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for each split sample, plus or minus 8.1 percentage points for Republicans in each split sample, plus or minus 7.7 for Democrats in each split sample, plus or minus 15.1 for Independents in the first split sample, and plus or minus 13.7 for Independents in the second split sample. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points for all respondents and +/-6.5 percentage points for each split sample).
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